Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP): Evaluating Valuation After Q3 Earnings Beat and 2026 Growth Commitments

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) just posted third quarter earnings that beat expectations, even with lower revenues. The highlights include stronger coal production, improved efficiency, and rising contract commitments, which could set the stage for higher output in 2026.

See our latest analysis for Alliance Resource Partners.

Alliance Resource Partners’ latest earnings cap off a year where the stock’s share price has drifted lower, yet the company has continued investing in future growth. While the 1-year total shareholder return sits at a modest 2.4%, buyers over longer horizons have enjoyed significant rewards, with a five-year total return north of 1000%. Recent operational wins and rising 2026 commitments suggest that momentum is building for the business, even if the share price has not fully caught up yet.

If strong production gains have you thinking about what else is out there, now’s a great moment to broaden your investing perspective and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Alliance Resource Partners combining strong operational results and strategic investments, yet its share price still below analyst targets, investors have to ask if this is a genuine value opportunity or if the market is already anticipating future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.6% Undervalued

With shares of Alliance Resource Partners closing at $24.23 and the narrative’s fair value set at $30.50, there is a sizable gap that suggests an opportunity. The current market price is well below what the most widely followed perspective believes the company is worth, providing some intriguing context.

“Recent legislative and administrative shifts in U.S. energy policy, such as regulatory reprieves for coal plants, the phasing out of renewable tax credits in favor of baseload power, and direct financial incentives to keep fossil fuel plants operational, have created the most favorable regulatory environment for coal in decades. These tailwinds should support stable or potentially higher future coal sales volumes and improve longer-term revenue visibility for Alliance Resource Partners.”

Read the complete narrative.

How did this narrative reach such a bullish view? It is not just about policy changes. The narrative hinges on growth assumptions and a future profit profile that may surprise you. Find out what numbers are fueling this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $30.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a sharp fall in coal prices or unexpected policy changes could quickly disrupt these bullish assumptions and challenge Alliance Resource Partners’ outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Alliance Resource Partners narrative.

Build Your Own Alliance Resource Partners Narrative

If you have your own take on Alliance Resource Partners’ story or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can build your own analysis quickly and easily by using Do it your way

A great starting point for your Alliance Resource Partners research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for More Smart Investment Ideas?

Act now to spot tomorrow’s opportunities before the crowd. Uncover stocks making waves in innovation, value, and income by tapping into these handpicked market themes:

• Capture growth in artificial intelligence by checking out these 26 AI penny stocks. These stocks are shaping the next wave of intelligent automation, smart platforms, and data-driven solutions.
• Boost your portfolio’s income potential and stability by seeking out these 22 dividend stocks with yields > 3%. These stocks consistently deliver yields above 3% with resilient performance.
• Ride the momentum in digital finance by exploring these 81 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks. These investments are driving advances in blockchain technologies, secure transactions, and the emerging crypto economy.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com