Radian Group (RDN): Evaluating Current Valuation and Upside Potential in Today’s Market

Radian Group (RDN) has seen modest movement in its stock price recently, with returns climbing just under 1% over the past three months. Investors might find the steady performance interesting given the ongoing shifts across the mortgage and real estate services sector.

See our latest analysis for Radian Group.

Radian Group has shown some resilience over the past year, with the share price returning 11.4% year-to-date and a solid 2.3% total return for shareholders over twelve months. However, momentum has cooled after the stock’s stronger run in previous years, as reflected in its impressive three- and five-year total returns above 100%. Recent price movements suggest the market is taking a more measured stance, possibly weighing Radian's growth outlook and risk profile with a bit more caution for now.

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With Radian trading at a discount to analyst targets and decades of experience in the sector, the question for investors is whether there is meaningful upside yet to come or if the market already reflects its future potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.1% Undervalued

With Radian Group’s narrative fair value at $38.67, roughly 8% above its last close of $35.55, the current price leaves some room for upside in analyst expectations. This setup highlights the tension between modest share gains and where the most influential narrative places fair value.

The ongoing entry of millennials and first-time homebuyers into the housing market is driving persistently strong housing demand, which is reflected in Radian's all-time high mortgage insurance in force and continued growth in new insurance written. This supports future revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s fueling this fair value? The key factors may include a combination of future earnings projections, gradually changing profit margins, and industry-shaping assumptions. Ready to discover the detailed analysis and calculations behind this narrative valuation? Only the full narrative reveals the levers and hidden numbers driving this price target.

Result: Fair Value of $38.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent reliance on mortgage insurance and slow diversification remain key risks that could significantly influence Radian's growth prospects and shareholder returns.

Find out about the key risks to this Radian Group narrative.

Build Your Own Radian Group Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or see things from a different angle, you can use the data to shape your own story for Radian Group in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Radian Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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