Will KKR's (KKR) Major PayPal Loan Deal Transform Its European Credit Investment Strategy?

• On November 17, 2025, PayPal announced a new agreement under which KKR will purchase up to €65 billion of European Buy Now, Pay Later loan receivables and provide a replenishing loan commitment of up to €6 billion, expanding their existing partnership across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.
• This deal highlights KKR’s increasing involvement as a provider of credit in the growing European BNPL market, reinforcing its diversification into asset-based finance and real estate funding.
• We’ll explore how KKR’s expanded role in European BNPL receivables acquisition and credit solutions may influence its investment narrative.

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KKR Investment Narrative Recap

To be a KKR shareholder, you need to believe in the company's ability to scale its asset-based finance and private credit operations globally, while effectively managing asset quality and liquidity risks. The recent PayPal BNPL agreement confirms KKR's commitment to credit expansion and supports its most important near-term catalyst, growth in credit fee revenue, though it does not fundamentally alter the biggest risk, which remains potential asset underperformance if market headwinds arise.

Another relevant client announcement, the £350 million refinancing provided to Cain for a prime UK logistics portfolio, fits within KKR’s broader push into credit and real assets. This underscores the firm’s diversification efforts and ability to deploy capital across sectors, reinforcing its strategy to grow durable, fee-based earnings even during volatile periods.

By contrast, investors should also be aware that rapid credit expansion exposes KKR to the risk of asset quality issues in less favorable cycles, especially if...

Read the full narrative on KKR (it's free!)

KKR's narrative projects $13.7 billion revenue and $5.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 13.9% yearly revenue decline and a $3.4 billion earnings increase from $2.0 billion today.

Uncover how KKR's forecasts yield a $157.14 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community put KKR's fair value between US$62.66 and US$170.36, marking wide-ranging expectations. While these opinions reflect diverse forecasts for future performance, accelerating fee-based AUM growth remains a focal point for many as KKR deepens its role in global private credit, offering multiple viewpoints to compare.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on KKR - why the stock might be worth as much as 39% more than the current price!

Build Your Own KKR Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your KKR research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free KKR research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate KKR's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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