Shareholders in Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (NYSE:HASI) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.
Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital from its seven analysts is for revenues of US$102m in 2021 which, if met, would be a sizeable 20% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to descend 18% to US$0.93 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$85m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.90 in 2021. The most recent forecasts are noticeably more optimistic, with a nice increase in revenue estimates and a lift to earnings per share as well.
Despite these upgrades, the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$64.10, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital analyst has a price target of US$80.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$48.00. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital'shistorical trends, as next year's 20% revenue growth is roughly in line with 23% annual revenue growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 33% per year. So it's pretty clear that Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital.
Analysts are definitely bullish on Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, but no company is perfect. Indeed, you should know that there are several potential concerns to be aware of, including recent substantial insider selling. You can learn more, and discover the 3 other warning signs we've identified, for free on our platform here.
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