Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT

NYSE:EARN Stock Report

Market Cap: US$138.5m

Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT Valuation

Is EARN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EARN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate EARN's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate EARN's fair value for valuation analysis.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EARN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

EARN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EARN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EARN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.6x
LFT Lument Finance Trust
8.9x14.9%US$132.2m
ACR ACRES Commercial Realty
32x54.3%US$93.8m
SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust
7.4xn/aUS$191.2m
SACH Sachem Capital
10.2x9.7%US$202.3m
EARN Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT
29.4x39.0%US$138.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EARN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.4x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EARN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a48.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a48.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EARN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.4x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (13.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EARN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EARN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.4x
Fair PE Ratio17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EARN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EARN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.76
US$6.50
-3.8%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$5.99
US$6.50
+8.5%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$6.09
US$6.50
+6.7%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$6.13
US$6.50
+6.0%
7.7%US$7.00US$6.00n/a2
Apr ’24US$7.30
US$8.50
+16.4%
5.9%US$9.00US$8.00n/a2
Jan ’24US$6.86
US$7.75
+13.0%
3.2%US$8.00US$7.50US$6.132
Dec ’23US$7.20
US$7.75
+7.6%
3.2%US$8.00US$7.50US$6.082
Nov ’23US$6.79
US$8.38
+23.3%
13.4%US$9.50US$7.25US$5.402
Oct ’23US$6.17
US$9.25
+49.9%
2.7%US$9.50US$9.00US$6.212
Sep ’23US$7.77
US$9.25
+19.0%
2.7%US$9.50US$9.00US$6.542
Jun ’23US$8.25
US$9.75
+18.2%
7.7%US$10.50US$9.00US$7.042
May ’23US$8.78
US$10.38
+18.2%
6.0%US$11.00US$9.75US$7.252
Apr ’23US$9.71
US$10.75
+10.7%
7.0%US$11.50US$10.00US$7.302
Mar ’23US$9.59
US$12.33
+28.6%
5.1%US$13.00US$11.50US$7.533

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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