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After Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.’s (NYSE:BXMT) earnings announcement on 31 December 2018, the consensus outlook from analysts appear somewhat bearish, with earnings expected to grow by 5.9% in the upcoming year against the higher past 5-year average growth rate of 28%. With trailing-twelve-month net income at current levels of US$285m, we should see this rise to US$302m in 2020. Below is a brief commentary on the longer term outlook the market has for Blackstone Mortgage Trust. For those interested in more of an analysis of the company, you can research its fundamentals here.
Exciting times ahead?
The longer term expectations from the 8 analysts of BXMT is tilted towards the positive sentiment. Since forecasting becomes more difficult further into the future, broker analysts generally project out to around three years. To get an idea of the overall earnings growth trend for BXMT, I’ve plotted out each year’s earnings expectations and inserted a line of best fit to determine an annual rate of growth from the slope of this line.
This results in an annual growth rate of 5.4% based on the most recent earnings level of US$285m to the final forecast of US$351m by 2022. However, if we exclude extraordinary items from net income, we see that earnings is projected to fall over time, resulting in an EPS of $2.39 in the final year of forecast compared to the current $2.5 EPS today. By the end of 2022, analysts are expecting earnings to outpace revenue, and margins to expand from the current 72% to 72%.
Future outlook is only one aspect when you’re building an investment case for a stock. For Blackstone Mortgage Trust, I’ve compiled three key factors you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does it have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Valuation: What is Blackstone Mortgage Trust worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether Blackstone Mortgage Trust is currently mispriced by the market.
- Other High-Growth Alternatives : Are there other high-growth stocks you could be holding instead of Blackstone Mortgage Trust? Explore our interactive list of stocks with large growth potential to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. On rare occasion, data errors may occur. Thank you for reading.