Reassessing Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Valuation After Its Earnings Miss and Ongoing Dividend Strength

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) is back in focus after third quarter earnings came in light, with earnings per share at $0.24 versus expectations for $0.36, prompting investors to reassess the income story.

See our latest analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust.

The earnings miss has taken some of the shine off Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s earlier rebound, with a 7.93% 1 month share price return cooling into a slightly negative 3 month move, even as the 1 year total shareholder return of 17.28% still signals that income focused investors have largely stayed the course.

If this earnings wobble has you reconsidering where you hunt for yield and stability, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential new ideas beyond traditional mortgage REITs.

With shares now trading only slightly below analyst targets, but net income still growing faster than revenues, investors face a key question: Is Blackstone Mortgage Trust quietly undervalued, or are markets already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 3% Undervalued

With Blackstone Mortgage Trust closing at $19.88 against a narrative fair value near $20.50, the valuation case leans on ambitious profit recovery and margin expansion.

The launch of a net lease investment strategy, particularly in defensive business sectors, is expected to provide stable cash flows, enhancing the diversification and resilience of the revenue stream, which could support consistent revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a once loss making lender is projected to rebuild profits, expand margins dramatically, and still trade on a modest future earnings multiple? The narrative connects rapid top line growth, sharply higher profitability, and disciplined capital returns into a single valuation story. Want to see the exact assumptions behind that earnings ramp and multiple reset? Read on to uncover the full blueprint behind this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $20.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering impaired loans and uncertain loan repayment timing could easily derail the margin expansion and earnings ramp that underpin this optimistic valuation path.

Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Flash a Caution Sign

While the narrative fair value suggests only a small upside, the market’s own yardstick paints a tougher picture. BXMT trades on a price to earnings ratio of 31.4 times, more than double the Mortgage REITs industry at 13 times and well above its 17.6 times fair ratio, implying investors are already paying up for that recovery story. If earnings or margins slip, how much multiple risk are you really carrying for a stock sold as a steady income play?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Blackstone Mortgage Trust Narrative

If this story does not quite fit your view, or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Blackstone Mortgage Trust research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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