If You Had Bought Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT) Shares Three Years Ago You’d Have Made 31%

Investors can buy low cost index fund if they want to receive the average market return. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. That’s what has happened with the Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE:BXMT) share price. It’s up 31% over three years, but that is below the market return. In the last year the stock has gained 14%.

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See our latest analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust was able to grow its EPS at 1.9% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 9.4% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. That’s not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.

The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NYSE:BXMT Past and Future Earnings, May 17th 2019
NYSE:BXMT Past and Future Earnings, May 17th 2019

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s TSR for the last 3 years was 66%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We’re pleased to report that Blackstone Mortgage Trust shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 23% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 13%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares – and the price they paid.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.