Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It’s been a good week for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYSE:BXMT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.4% to US$40.01. Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$424m and statutory earnings per share of US$2.35, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust

NYSE:BXMT Past and Future Earnings, February 14th 2020
NYSE:BXMT Past and Future Earnings, February 14th 2020

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Blackstone Mortgage Trust are now predicting revenues of US$441.9m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.2% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.31, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of US$447.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.31 in 2020. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.

Analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$38.06, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so – considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Blackstone Mortgage Trust, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$42.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 4.2% increase next year well below the historical 18%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. So it’s pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, analysts still expect the wider market to grow faster than Blackstone Mortgage Trust.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations – although our data does suggest that Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at US$38.06, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts’ estimated valuations.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple Blackstone Mortgage Trust analysts – going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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