NYSE:ARI

Stock Analysis Report

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

Executive Summary

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Fair value with acceptable track record.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0.5%

NYSE:ARI

-1.2%

US Mortgage REITs

-1.6%

US Market


1 Year Return

-3.5%

NYSE:ARI

-11.1%

US Mortgage REITs

-3.0%

US Market

ARI outperformed the Mortgage REITs industry which returned -9.9% over the past year.

ARI underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned -0% over the past year.


Share holder returns

ARIIndustryMarket
7 Day0.5%-1.2%-1.6%
30 Day-0.05%-4.6%-5.8%
90 Day-0.5%-4.3%0.2%
1 Year6.8%-3.5%-1.1%-11.1%-0.8%-3.0%
3 Year56.4%15.2%31.3%-5.3%38.0%29.1%
5 Year85.9%11.0%44.8%-17.0%50.8%34.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

23%

Discount to future cash flow value


Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).


Price Based on Earnings

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is good value based on earnings compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.


Price Based on Expected Growth

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is poor value based on expected growth next year.


Price Based on Value of Assets

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average.


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

9.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates


Future Annual Growth Analysis

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's revenue is expected to grow by 5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's earnings are expected to grow by 9.2% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.


Earnings per Share Growth Estimates


Future Return on Equity

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performed over the past 5 years?

24.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's 1-year earnings growth is less than its 5-year average (20% vs 24.7%)

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's earnings growth has exceeded the US Mortgage REITs industry average in the past year (20% vs 3.7%).


Return on Equity

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).


Return on Assets

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance used its assets more efficiently than the US Mortgage REITs industry average last year based on Return on Assets.


Return on Capital Employed

Unable to establish if Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed) due to insufficient past data.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's level of debt (106.5%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).

The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (79.8% vs 106.5% today).

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (7.2%, less than 20% of total debt).

Unable to confirm if the interest payments on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's debt are well covered by earnings due to lack of past financial data.


Balance Sheet

Low level of unsold assets.

Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 2x debt.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

9.89%

Expected Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.49%).

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's dividend is above the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.82%).

Whilst dividend payments have been stable, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Dividend payments have increased, but Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance only paid a dividend in the past 9 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividends paid are not well covered by earnings (0.9x coverage).


Future Payout to Shareholders

Dividends after 3 years are not well covered by earnings (1x coverage).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

5.8yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Stuart Rothstein (53yo)

7.4yrs

Tenure

US$1,915,900

Compensation

Mr. Stuart A. Rothstein is the Chief Operating Officer of Real Assets and Partner at Apollo Global Management, LLC since 2009. Mr. Rothstein is responsible for managing the day-to-day operations of Apollo’ ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Stuart's remuneration is lower than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.

Stuart's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.


Board Age and Tenure

5.8yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

The tenure for the Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance board of directors is about average.


Insider Trading

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance individual insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$380,40022 Aug 19
Michael Salvati
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Chairman of the Board
Shares20,000
Max PriceUS$19.02
SellUS$188,48910 Dec 18
Mark Biderman
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Director
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$18.85
SellUS$185,22121 Nov 18
Jeffrey Gault
EntityIndividual
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$18.52
SellUS$194,50029 Aug 18
Mark Biderman
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Director
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$19.45

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Stuart Rothstein (53yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 7.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.92m
  • Hilary Ginsberg

    IR Contact

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Scott Weiner

    Chief Investment Officer

    • Tenure: 0.0yrs
  • Jai Agarwal (45yo)

    CFO, Treasurer & Secretary

    • Tenure: 3.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$836.07k
  • Cindy Michel (45yo)

    Chief Compliance Officer & Director

    • Tenure: 2.3yrs

Board Members

  • Stuart Rothstein (53yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 7.4yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.92m
  • Mark Biderman (73yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 8.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$192.49k
  • Michael Salvati (67yo)

    Chairman of the Board

    • Tenure: 0.2yrs
    • Compensation: US$194.99k
  • Eric Press (53yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 10.2yrs
  • Robert Kasdin (60yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 5.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$179.99k
  • Scott Prince (55yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 5.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$192.49k
  • Cindy Michel (45yo)

    Chief Compliance Officer & Director

    • Tenure: 2.3yrs

Company Information

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
  • Ticker: ARI
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2009
  • Industry: Mortgage REITs
  • Sector: Diversified Financials
  • Market Cap: US$2.866b
  • Shares outstanding: 153.53m
  • Website: https://www.apolloreit.com

Location

  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
  • 9 West 57th Street
  • 43rd Floor
  • New York
  • New York
  • 10019
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ARINYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDSep 2009
9A1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURSep 2009

Biography

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate finan ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/08/24 00:17
End of Day Share Price2019/08/23 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.