NYSE:ARI

Stock Analysis Report

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

Executive Summary

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Average dividend payer and fair value.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0.2%

ARI

1.1%

US Mortgage REITs

1.0%

US Market


1 Year Return

1.4%

ARI

-3.2%

US Mortgage REITs

6.7%

US Market

Return vs Industry: ARI exceeded the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned -3.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ARI underperformed the US Market which returned 6.7% over the past year.


Share holder returns

ARIIndustryMarket
7 Day0.2%1.1%1.0%
30 Day-2.0%0.5%-1.8%
90 Day1.3%-1.8%-1.8%
1 Year12.2%1.4%7.8%-3.2%9.1%6.7%
3 Year58.4%17.2%40.5%1.4%46.1%36.6%
5 Year96.4%17.4%55.4%-10.7%66.9%48.6%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

23%

Discount to future cash flow value


Intrinsic Value Based on Future Cash Flows

Undervalued: ARI ($18.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($24.43)

Significantly Undervalued: ARI is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price Based on Earnings

PE vs Industry: ARI is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.9x) compared to the Mortgage REITs industry average (12.7x).

PE vs Market: ARI is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.9x) compared to the US market (17.5x).


Price Based on Expected Growth

Low PEG Ratio: ARI is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.3x)


Price Based on Value of Assets

PB vs Industry: ARI is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.1x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (0.9x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

8.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Estimates


Future Annual Growth Analysis

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARI's forecast earnings growth (8.9% per year) is above the savings rate (2.7%).

Earnings vs Market: ARI's earnings (8.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ARI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ARI's revenue (5.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ARI's revenue (5.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Estimates


Future Return on Equity

High Future ROE: ARI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performed over the past 5 years?

24.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ARI's earnings have grown significantly by 24.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ARI's earnings growth over the past year (20%) is below its 5-year average (24.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: ARI earnings growth over the past year (20%) exceeded the Mortgage REITs industry 3.7%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: ARI's Return on Equity (9.1%) is considered low.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: ARI has a higher Return on Assets than the Mortgage REITs industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: Insufficient data to calculate ARI's Return on Capital Employed to determine if it has improved over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)


Financial Position Analysis


Debt to Equity History and Analysis


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: ARI has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: ARI's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 1.975870x debt).


Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: ARI's level of assets compared to its equity is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if ARI has a sufficient allowance for bad loans.

Low Risk Liabilities: ARI reports no customer deposits, loans are made up entirely of externally borrowed funds.

Loan Level: Insufficient data to determine if ARI has an acceptable proportion of non-loan assets held.

Low Risk Deposits: ARI has advanced significantly more loans than the customer deposits it holds.

Level of Bad Loans: Insufficient data to determine if ARI has an appropriate level of bad loans.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

9.76%

Expected Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company9.7%marketbottom25%1.5%markettop25%3.8%industryaverage10.1%forecastin3Years9.8%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Dividend Yield and Payments Analysis

Notable Dividend: ARI's dividend (9.73%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.46%).

High Dividend: ARI's dividend (9.73%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.77%)

Stable Dividend: ARI's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ARI's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (116.1%), ARI's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: ARI's dividends in 3 years are not forecast to be well covered by earnings (100.4% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

5.9yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Stuart Rothstein (53yo)

7.6yrs

Tenure

US$1,915,900

Compensation

Mr. Stuart A. Rothstein is the Chief Operating Officer of Real Assets and Partner at Apollo Global Management, Inc. since 2009. Mr. Rothstein is responsible for managing the day-to-day operations of Apollo ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: Stuart's total compensation ($USD1.92M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.11M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Stuart's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Board Age and Tenure

5.9yrs

Average Tenure

55yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: ARI's board of directors are considered experienced (5.9 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: ARI insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$380,40022 Aug 19
Michael Salvati
EntityIndividual
Role
Chairman of the Board
Chairman of the Board
Shares20,000
Max PriceUS$19.02
SellUS$188,48910 Dec 18
Mark Biderman
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Director
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$18.85
SellUS$185,22121 Nov 18
Jeffrey Gault
EntityIndividual
Shares10,000
Max PriceUS$18.52

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Stuart Rothstein (53yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 7.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.92m
  • Hilary Ginsberg

    IR Contact

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Scott Weiner

    Chief Investment Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Jai Agarwal (45yo)

    CFO, Treasurer & Secretary

    • Tenure: 3.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$836.07k
  • Cindy Michel (45yo)

    Chief Compliance Officer & Director

    • Tenure: 2.4yrs

Board Members

  • Stuart Rothstein (53yo)

    President

    • Tenure: 7.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$1.92m
  • Mark Biderman (73yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 8.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$192.49k
  • Michael Salvati (67yo)

    Chairman of the Board

    • Tenure: 0.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$194.99k
  • Eric Press (53yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 10.3yrs
  • Robert Kasdin (60yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 5.5yrs
    • Compensation: US$179.99k
  • Scott Prince (55yo)

    Director

    • Tenure: 5.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$192.49k
  • Cindy Michel (45yo)

    Chief Compliance Officer & Director

    • Tenure: 2.4yrs

Company Information

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
  • Ticker: ARI
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2009
  • Industry: Mortgage REITs
  • Sector: Diversified Financials
  • Market Cap: US$2.903b
  • Shares outstanding: 153.53m
  • Website: https://www.apolloreit.com

Location

  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
  • 9 West 57th Street
  • 43rd Floor
  • New York
  • New York
  • 10019
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
ARINYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDSep 2009
9A1DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURSep 2009

Biography

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate finan ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/14 02:28
End of Day Share Price2019/10/11 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

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