| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 6/6 |
| Future Growth | 2/6 |
| Past Performance | 1/6 |
| Financial Health | 2/6 |
| Dividends | 2/6 |
ARI Stock Overview
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$10.84 |
| 52 Week High | US$15.98 |
| 52 Week Low | US$9.41 |
| Beta | 1.28 |
| 1 Month Change | -13.97% |
| 3 Month Change | -23.45% |
| 1 Year Change | -31.44% |
| 3 Year Change | -41.22% |
| 5 Year Change | -40.86% |
| Change since IPO | -41.40% |
Recent News & Updates
Apollo Commercial: This 11.3% Yielding Mortgage Trust May See A Dividend Cut
Apollo Commercial trades at a large discount to book value. The trust lowered its dividend pay-out thrice during the pandemic. Apollo Commercial's dividend coverage is weak, suggesting that the dividend might be at risk.
Shareholder Returns
| ARI | US Mortgage REITs | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -2.2% | -2.3% | -2.5% |
| 1Y | -31.4% | -27.3% | -21.2% |
Return vs Industry: ARI underperformed the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned -27.3% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ARI underperformed the US Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| ARI volatility | |
|---|---|
| ARI Average Weekly Movement | 6.2% |
| Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement | 5.7% |
| Market Average Movement | 8.1% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.8% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.3% |
Stable Share Price: ARI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ARI's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | n/a | Stuart Rothstein | https://www.apolloreit.com |
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Fundamentals Summary
| ARI fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$1.52b |
| Earnings (TTM) | US$163.84m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$292.46m |
9.3x
P/E Ratio5.2x
P/S RatioIs ARI overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| ARI income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$292.46m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$29.58m |
| Gross Profit | US$262.89m |
| Other Expenses | US$99.05m |
| Earnings | US$163.84m |
Last Reported Earnings
Mar 31, 2022
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | 1.17 |
| Gross Margin | 89.89% |
| Net Profit Margin | 56.02% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 284.6% |
How did ARI perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonDividends
12.9%
Current Dividend Yield120%
Payout RatioValuation
Is ARI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
6/6Valuation Score 6/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARI?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is ARI's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$1.52b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | 0.6x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does ARI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| ARI PE Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 11.3x | ||
TWO Two Harbors Investment | 9.6x | 8.2% | US$1.7b |
MFA MFA Financial | 9x | 76.2% | US$1.1b |
KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust | 9.9x | 7.0% | US$1.3b |
CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust | 16.7x | 27.0% | US$2.4b |
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance | 9.3x | 14.7% | US$1.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the peer average (11.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ARI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (10.9x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ARI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 9.3x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 13.7x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ARI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ARI ($10.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.37)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ARI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: ARI is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)
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Future Growth
How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?
Future Growth Score
2/6Future Growth Score 2/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
14.7%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARI's forecast earnings growth (14.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: ARI's earnings (14.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.6% per year).
High Growth Earnings: ARI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: ARI's revenue (1.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ARI's revenue (1.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ARI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Past Performance
How has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
1/6Past Performance Score 1/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
-4.0%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ARI has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: ARI's current net profit margins (56%) are lower than last year (56.8%).
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ARI's earnings have declined by 4% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: ARI's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: ARI had negative earnings growth (-12.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Mortgage REITs industry average (5.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ARI's Return on Equity (8%) is considered low.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial position?
Financial Health Score
2/6Financial Health Score 2/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ARI's short term assets ($8.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($129.3M).
Long Term Liabilities: ARI's short term assets ($8.8B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.4B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ARI's net debt to equity ratio (273.2%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: ARI's debt to equity ratio has increased from 93.7% to 284.6% over the past 5 years.
Debt Coverage: ARI's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.2%).
Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if ARI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.
Balance Sheet
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Dividend
What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
2/6Dividend Score 2/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage
12.92%
Current Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: ARI's dividend (12.92%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.6%).
High Dividend: ARI's dividend (12.92%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.25%)
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: ARI's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.
Growing Dividend: ARI's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (119.6%), ARI's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (96%), ARI's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
8.5yrs
Average board tenure
CEO
Stuart Rothstein (56 yo)
10.33yrs
Tenure
US$2,200,000
Compensation
Mr. Stuart A. Rothstein is Chairman of the Board of Directors at Apollo Realty Income Solutions, Inc. Mr. Rothstein serves as Chief Operating Officer of Real Estate at Apollo Global Management, Inc. since...
Board Members
Experienced Board: ARI's board of directors are considered experienced (8.5 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: ARI insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
- Ticker: ARI
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 2009
- Industry: Mortgage REITs
- Sector: Diversified Financials
- Implied Market Cap: US$1.524b
- Shares outstanding: 140.59m
- Website: https://www.apolloreit.com
Location
- Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
- 9 West 57th Street
- 43rd Floor
- New York
- New York
- 10019
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/07/03 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/07/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/12/31 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.