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ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance NYSE:ARI Stock Report

Last Price

US$11.08

Market Cap

US$1.6b

7D

13.5%

1Y

-32.9%

Updated

26 Jun, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
ARI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation6/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance1/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends2/6

ARI Stock Overview

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Competitors

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$11.08
52 Week HighUS$16.52
52 Week LowUS$9.41
Beta1.28
1 Month Change-13.17%
3 Month Change-22.30%
1 Year Change-32.93%
3 Year Change-39.75%
5 Year Change-40.27%
Change since IPO-40.11%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 09

Apollo Commercial: This 11.3% Yielding Mortgage Trust May See A Dividend Cut

Apollo Commercial trades at a large discount to book value. The trust lowered its dividend pay-out thrice during the pandemic. Apollo Commercial's dividend coverage is weak, suggesting that the dividend might be at risk.

Shareholder Returns

ARIUS Mortgage REITsUS Market
7D13.5%9.1%6.6%
1Y-32.9%-28.0%-18.4%

Return vs Industry: ARI underperformed the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned -28% over the past year.

Return vs Market: ARI underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is ARI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
ARI volatility
ARI Average Weekly Movement6.1%
Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement5.7%
Market Average Movement8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: ARI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: ARI's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2009n/aStuart Rothsteinhttps://www.apolloreit.com

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Fundamentals Summary

How do Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
ARI fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.56b
Earnings (TTM)US$163.84m
Revenue (TTM)US$292.46m

9.5x

P/E Ratio

5.3x

P/S Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
ARI income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$292.46m
Cost of RevenueUS$29.58m
Gross ProfitUS$262.89m
Other ExpensesUS$99.05m
EarningsUS$163.84m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)1.17
Gross Margin89.89%
Net Profit Margin56.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio284.6%

How did ARI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

12.6%

Current Dividend Yield

120%

Payout Ratio

Does ARI pay a reliable dividends?

See ARI dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy ARI by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateJun 29 2022
Dividend Pay DateJul 15 2022
Days until Ex dividend2 days
Days until Dividend pay date18 days

Does ARI pay a reliable dividends?

See ARI dividend history and benchmarks
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is ARI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ARI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ratio0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

ARI PE Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PE ratio for ARI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the peer average (10.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Mortgage REITs Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (11.2x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.5x
Fair PE Ratio13.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARI ($11.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: ARI is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.6x)


Discover undervalued companies

Future Growth

How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


14.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARI's forecast earnings growth (14.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: ARI's earnings (14.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ARI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ARI's revenue (1.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ARI's revenue (1.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ARI's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-4.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: ARI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: ARI's current net profit margins (56%) are lower than last year (56.8%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: ARI's earnings have declined by 4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: ARI's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: ARI had negative earnings growth (-12.6%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Mortgage REITs industry average (5.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: ARI's Return on Equity (8%) is considered low.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: ARI's short term assets ($8.8B) exceed its short term liabilities ($129.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: ARI's short term assets ($8.8B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: ARI's net debt to equity ratio (273.2%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: ARI's debt to equity ratio has increased from 93.7% to 284.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: ARI's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.2%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if ARI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Future Dividend Coverage


12.64%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

TodayJun 27 2022Ex Dividend DateJun 29 2022Dividend Pay DateJul 15 202216 days from Ex DividendBuy in the next 2 days to receive the upcoming dividend

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: ARI's dividend (12.64%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: ARI's dividend (12.64%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: ARI's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: ARI's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its high payout ratio (119.6%), ARI's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (96%), ARI's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.4yrs

Average board tenure


CEO

Stuart Rothstein (55 yo)

10.25yrs

Tenure

US$2,200,000

Compensation

Mr. Stuart A. Rothstein is Chairman of the Board of Directors at Apollo Realty Income Solutions, Inc. Mr. Rothstein serves as Chief Operating Officer of Real Estate at Apollo Global Management, Inc. since...


Board Members

Experienced Board: ARI's board of directors are considered experienced (8.4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: ARI insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
  • Ticker: ARI
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 2009
  • Industry: Mortgage REITs
  • Sector: Diversified Financials
  • Implied Market Cap: US$1.558b
  • Shares outstanding: 140.59m
  • Website: https://www.apolloreit.com

Location

  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
  • 9 West 57th Street
  • 43rd Floor
  • New York
  • New York
  • 10019
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.