Earnings are growing at XP (NASDAQ:XP) but shareholders still don't like its prospects

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 11, 2022
NasdaqGS:XP
Source: Shutterstock

Investors can approximate the average market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Investors in XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 23%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 2.0%. XP hasn't been listed for long, so although we're wary of recent listings that perform poorly, it may still prove itself with time.

With the stock having lost 3.6% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for XP

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate twelve months during which the XP share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 71%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.

XP's revenue is actually up 47% over the last year. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:XP Earnings and Revenue Growth April 11th 2022

XP is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While XP shareholders are down 23% for the year, the market itself is up 2.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Putting aside the last twelve months, it's good to see the share price has rebounded by 7.7%, in the last ninety days. Let's just hope this isn't the widely-feared 'dead cat bounce' (which would indicate further declines to come). Before spending more time on XP it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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