Victory Capital Holdings (NASDAQ:VCTR) sheds 5.6% this week, as yearly returns fall more in line with earnings growth

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 19, 2022
NasdaqGS:VCTR
Source: Shutterstock

It hasn't been the best quarter for Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:VCTR) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. Indeed, the share price is up a very strong 201% in that time. It's not uncommon to see a share price retrace a bit, after a big gain. The thing to consider is whether the underlying business is doing well enough to support the current price.

Although Victory Capital Holdings has shed US$132m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

View our latest analysis for Victory Capital Holdings

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Victory Capital Holdings achieved compound earnings per share growth of 59% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 44% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 8.46.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
NasdaqGS:VCTR Earnings Per Share Growth January 19th 2022

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Victory Capital Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Victory Capital Holdings, it has a TSR of 212% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Pleasingly, Victory Capital Holdings' total shareholder return last year was 37%. That's including the dividend. That falls short of the 46% it has made, for shareholders, each year, over three years. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Victory Capital Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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