How Investors May Respond To StoneCo (STNE) Rising Analyst Optimism and Positive Earnings Revisions

• StoneCo has recently been added to the Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) List following a series of upward revisions in analyst earnings estimates and sustained positive broker sentiment, despite no major company-specific announcements.
• The increasing analyst optimism highlights a shift in perception driven largely by improvements in earnings expectations and reinforced by steady growth in revenue and net income.
• We will explore how this surge in analyst confidence and upward earnings estimate revisions may shape StoneCo's broader investment narrative.

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StoneCo Investment Narrative Recap

For shareholders in StoneCo, the key conviction is believing in Brazil's ongoing shift from cash to digital payments, which expands the company's core addressable market among small and micro businesses. The recent Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) upgrade reflects strengthening analyst confidence driven by raised earnings estimates; while this supports the short-term picture, the biggest catalyst remains sustained transaction volume and margin improvements, and the largest risk is still decelerating TPV growth in a soft macro environment. Overall, the news reinforces the existing narrative, but doesn't materially shift near-term catalysts or risks for now.

The company's Q2 2025 results are most relevant to this narrative, showing revenue growth to R$3,500.92 million and net income rising to R$602.98 million year over year. These strong fundamentals helped underpin analyst optimism and estimate revisions that ultimately fed into the recent Zacks upgrade, tying StoneCo’s operational execution directly to upbeat short-term expectations.

However, investors should also be alert to the risk that, despite impressive earnings momentum, a continued slowdown in TPV could...

Read the full narrative on StoneCo (it's free!)

StoneCo's outlook anticipates R$17.4 billion in revenue and R$5.0 billion in earnings by 2028. Achieving this would require 8.2% annual revenue growth and a R$6.3 billion improvement in earnings from the current R$-1.3 billion.

Uncover how StoneCo's forecasts yield a $19.06 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from 11 Simply Wall St Community members span from R$13.63 to R$41.33 per share, reflecting wide differences in outlook. As many weigh the pace of digital payment adoption against slowing TPV growth, consider how your own perspective fits in.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on StoneCo - why the stock might be worth 25% less than the current price!

Build Your Own StoneCo Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your StoneCo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free StoneCo research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate StoneCo's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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