Why Carlyle Group (CG) Is Down 9.6% After Earnings Miss and Dividend Announcement – And What's Next

• The Carlyle Group reported third quarter 2025 earnings, showing a steep drop in revenue to US$332.7 million and net income to US$0.9 million, alongside the declaration of a US$0.35 per share dividend for shareholders of record as of November 10, 2025.
• This sharp decrease in profitability highlights the impact of market and operational headwinds on Carlyle's recent financial results despite continued commitment to returning capital via dividends.
• We will explore how the significant year-over-year decline in earnings could reshape Carlyle Group's investment narrative and future expectations.

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Carlyle Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Carlyle Group shareholder, you need conviction in the firm’s ability to rebound from significant profit volatility and capitalize on alternatives-driven fundraising momentum. The third quarter’s sharp drop in both revenue and net income naturally puts near-term earnings growth in the spotlight, yet this event has not fundamentally shifted the biggest catalyst, ongoing expansion in assets under management, nor does it materially change the main risk: sustained pressure on management fees due to competition and market headwinds.

Among recent announcements, the quarterly dividend declaration of US$0.35 per share stands out. By maintaining its dividend despite a substantial earnings decline, Carlyle signals a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, yet the sustainability of this payout could become increasingly important if fee pressures or earnings weakness persist.

In contrast, investors should be aware that persistent market competition could affect Carlyle’s future management fee growth and earnings stability…

Read the full narrative on Carlyle Group (it's free!)

Carlyle Group's narrative projects $5.1 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires a 2.6% annual revenue decline and a $0.4 billion earnings increase from the current earnings of $1.3 billion.

Uncover how Carlyle Group's forecasts yield a $69.25 fair value, a 33% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community offered three US$ fair value estimates for Carlyle ranging from about $45.83 to $69.25 per share, highlighting wide variance in investor outlooks. With the latest earnings underscoring volatility in profits, your perspective on Carlyle’s ability to sustain and grow fee revenues in a competitive industry will shape your view, consider what other investors see and explore alternative viewpoints.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Carlyle Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 33% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Carlyle Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Carlyle Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Carlyle Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Carlyle Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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