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AGNC

AGNC Investment NasdaqGS:AGNC Stock Report

Last Price

US$11.60

Market Cap

US$6.1b

7D

11.4%

1Y

-32.6%

Updated

24 Jun, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
AGNC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth5/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends3/6

AGNC Stock Overview

AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States.

AGNC Investment Competitors

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for AGNC Investment
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$11.60
52 Week HighUS$17.33
52 Week LowUS$9.99
Beta1.04
1 Month Change-2.36%
3 Month Change-12.59%
1 Year Change-32.64%
3 Year Change-31.03%
5 Year Change-45.51%
Change since IPO-40.05%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 16

AGNC: The Mortgage-Backed-Securities Market Is Freezing On Market Volatility

Mortgage REITs with significant exposure to mortgage-backed securities have seen big declines this year as mortgage spreads skyrocket. AGNC Investment Corp. has declined by 40% since I published my bearish thesis on the stock last year. Last year, I believed the end of the Fed's MBS purchase program would cause spreads to widen and AGNC's book value to collapse; this has now played out. Based on current NAV estimates, AGNC is trading very close to its current book value. However, higher rates are causing its volatility to get out of control. Potential Issues in the housing market, and specifically in 140X levered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, may trigger another rapid rise in MBS risk spreads.

May 26

AGNC Investment: We Continue To Stay Out After A 20% Correction

AGNC Investment stock has lost more than 20% since I last cautioned that it is being pressured by yield spread narrowing . Now I see the possibility even higher for the yield curve spread to keep narrowing or even to invert. Yet, it is still trading at a historically fair valuation. Given the risks ahead, I do not feel the current valuation justifies an investment here.

Shareholder Returns

AGNCUS Mortgage REITsUS Market
7D11.4%10.0%4.0%
1Y-32.6%-30.4%-20.5%

Return vs Industry: AGNC underperformed the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned -30.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AGNC underperformed the US Market which returned -20.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AGNC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AGNC volatility
AGNC Average Weekly Movement5.2%
Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement5.4%
Market Average Movement7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: AGNC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AGNC's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200850Peter Federicohttps://www.agnc.com

AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. It funds its investments primarily through collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements.

AGNC Investment Fundamentals Summary

How do AGNC Investment's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AGNC fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$6.07b
Earnings (TTM)-US$977.00m
Revenue (TTM)n/a

-7.7x

P/S Ratio

-6.2x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AGNC income statement (TTM)
Revenue-US$792.00m
Cost of RevenueUS$0
Gross Profit-US$792.00m
Other ExpensesUS$185.00m
Earnings-US$977.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-1.87
Gross Margin100.00%
Net Profit Margin123.36%
Debt/Equity Ratio509.5%

How did AGNC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

12.4%

Current Dividend Yield

-77%

Payout Ratio

Does AGNC pay a reliable dividends?

See AGNC dividend history and benchmarks
When do you need to buy AGNC by to receive an upcoming dividend?
AGNC Investment dividend dates
Ex Dividend DateJun 29 2022
Dividend Pay DateJul 12 2022
Days until Ex dividend4 days
Days until Dividend pay date17 days

Does AGNC pay a reliable dividends?

See AGNC dividend history and benchmarks
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AGNC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGNC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AGNC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ration/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does AGNC's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

AGNC PB Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PB ratio for AGNC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x

Price-To-Book vs Peers: AGNC is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AGNC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Mortgage REITs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: AGNC is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (0.8x)


Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGNC's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGNC PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio0.8x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AGNC's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGNC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGNC ($11.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($21.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGNC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AGNC's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


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Future Growth

How is AGNC Investment forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

5/6

Future Growth Score 5/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


114.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AGNC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AGNC is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: AGNC is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AGNC's revenue (46.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AGNC's revenue (46.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AGNC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.4%).


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Past Performance

How has AGNC Investment performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-15.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AGNC is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: AGNC is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AGNC is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 15.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare AGNC's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: AGNC is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Mortgage REITs industry (5.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: AGNC has a negative Return on Equity (-9.82%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is AGNC Investment's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Debt Coverage

  • Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AGNC's short term assets ($15.7B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($57.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: AGNC's short term assets ($15.7B) exceed its long term liabilities ($116.0M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AGNC's net debt to equity ratio (371.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AGNC's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 546.4% to 509.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AGNC's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (3.3%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if AGNC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


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Dividend

What is AGNC Investment current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Future Dividend Coverage


12.41%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

TodayJun 25 2022Ex Dividend DateJun 29 2022Dividend Pay DateJul 12 202213 days from Ex DividendBuy in the next 4 days to receive the upcoming dividend

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: AGNC's dividend (12.41%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.62%).

High Dividend: AGNC's dividend (12.41%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.34%)


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AGNC's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AGNC's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: AGNC is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (50.8%), AGNC's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Peter Federico (55 yo)

4.25yrs

Tenure

US$6,949,900

Compensation

Mr. Peter J. Federico is Chief Executive Officer and Director at AGNC Investment Corp. since July 1, 2021 and serves as its President since March 31, 2018. He had been Chief Operating Officer of AGNC Inves...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Peter's total compensation ($USD6.95M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD8.47M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Peter's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AGNC's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.9 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: AGNC's board of directors are considered experienced (3.5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: AGNC insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

AGNC Investment Corp.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: AGNC Investment Corp.
  • Ticker: AGNC
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 2008
  • Industry: Mortgage REITs
  • Sector: Diversified Financials
  • Implied Market Cap: US$6.071b
  • Shares outstanding: 523.36m
  • Website: https://www.agnc.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • AGNC Investment Corp.
  • 2 Bethesda Metro Center
  • 12th Floor
  • Bethesda
  • Maryland
  • 20814
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/06/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings2022/03/31
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.