Assessing Super Group (NYSE:SGHC)’s Valuation After Its New 4¢ Dividend Boost for 2025

Super Group (SGHC) (NYSE:SGHC) just confirmed another 4¢ per share cash dividend, bringing 2025 payouts to 16¢ per share and underscoring management’s confidence in its cash generation and long term earnings potential.

See our latest analysis for Super Group (SGHC).

The latest dividend news lands after a bumpy few months, with a 30 day share price return of minus 8.03 percent and a 90 day share price return of minus 11.23 percent. However, the year to date share price return of 79.11 percent and three year total shareholder return of 289.02 percent suggest longer term momentum and earnings confidence are still very much intact.

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Yet with the shares still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite double digit revenue and earnings growth, investors now face a key question: is Super Group genuinely undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 36.7% Undervalued

With Super Group (SGHC) last closing at $11.23 versus a narrative fair value of $17.75, the spread points to meaningful upside if the projections land.

Accelerated investment in technology, including the addition of a Group CTO and scaling AI/data-driven initiatives, is enhancing product offerings, automating processes, and driving cost and marketing efficiencies likely leading to structurally higher EBITDA margins and improved free cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the full playbook behind this upgraded outlook? The narrative leans on rising margins, faster earnings compounding, and a valuation reset that assumes serious execution.

Result: Fair Value of $17.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still real risks, notably tighter regulation in key markets and heavy tech spending that may not translate into the hoped-for margin gains.

Find out about the key risks to this Super Group (SGHC) narrative.

Build Your Own Super Group (SGHC) Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own research, you can build a full narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Super Group (SGHC).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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