Did You Miss Hilton Grand Vacations' (NYSE:HGV) 97% Share Price Gain?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
June 01, 2021
NYSE:HGV
Source: Shutterstock

The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) share price is up 97% in the last year, clearly besting the market return of around 41% (not including dividends). If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! However, the stock hasn't done so well in the longer term, with the stock only up 16% in three years.

Check out our latest analysis for Hilton Grand Vacations

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last year Hilton Grand Vacations saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop below zero. While some may see this as temporary, we're a skeptical bunch, and so we're a little surprised to see the share price go up. We might get a clue to explain the share price move by looking to other metrics.

Unfortunately Hilton Grand Vacations' fell 58% over twelve months. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:HGV Earnings and Revenue Growth June 2nd 2021

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Hilton Grand Vacations rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 97% over the last year. That's better than the annualized TSR of 5% over the last three years. The improving returns to shareholders suggests the stock is becoming more popular with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hilton Grand Vacations better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Hilton Grand Vacations (including 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St is focused on providing unbiased, high-quality research coverage on every listed company in the world. Our research team consists of data scientists and multiple equity analysts with over two decades worth of financial markets experience between them.