Chipotle (CMG) Valuation Revisited After Weak Earnings, Slowing Same-Store Sales, and Mounting Cost Pressures

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has been under pressure after two weak earnings reports, as slowing same store sales, cost inflation, and softer demand from younger, lower income diners have reset expectations around its growth story.

See our latest analysis for Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Those headwinds have shown up in the tape, with the share price sliding meaningfully this year despite a solid 10.95% 1 month share price return and a still positive 5 year total shareholder return of 29.59%. This suggests that momentum has faded even as the long term story is not broken.

If Chipotle’s reset has you rethinking where growth and resilience might come from next, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the stock down nearly 50% from its highs, but still trading at a premium to peers, the key question now is whether Chipotle is finally cheap enough to justify fresh money or if investors are still paying up for tomorrow’s growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 21.4% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting at $43.18 against a last close of $33.94, the valuation debate shifts from downside risk to upside potential.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.3 billion (and earnings per share of $1.83) by about September 2028, up from $1.5 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts, with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $2.0 billion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how revenue growth, margin expansion, and a richer future earnings multiple all combine to justify that price tag? The full narrative reveals the playbook.

Result: Fair Value of $43.18 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent macro pressure on consumer spending and potential ingredient tariffs could undercut traffic recovery, squeeze margins, and stall the long term growth thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this Chipotle Mexican Grill narrative.

Build Your Own Chipotle Mexican Grill Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own inputs, you can build a personalised view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Chipotle Mexican Grill.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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