| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3/6 |
| Future Growth | 5/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 0/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
CCL Stock Overview
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company.
Carnival Corporation & Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$9.65 |
| 52 Week High | US$28.54 |
| 52 Week Low | US$8.70 |
| Beta | 2.04 |
| 1 Month Change | -17.94% |
| 3 Month Change | -47.53% |
| 1 Year Change | -64.86% |
| 3 Year Change | -78.99% |
| 5 Year Change | -85.19% |
| Change since IPO | 93.00% |
Recent News & Updates
Carnival: A Prototypical Value Trap
CCL is ostensibly cheap based upon the assumption it can return to pre-pandemic earnings and FCF, but the leverage incurred during the pandemic renders its future FCF generation mute. While it is unlikely that CCL will face insolvency, its lack of prospective cash flow makes the stock extremely overvalued at present levels. CCL's historical capital allocation has been poor, however, there are potential catalysts in place to optimize capital allocation for CCL. Even if prescriptive actions were to be taken to unlock shareholder value, the stock would not prove to be undervalued at today's prices.
Carnival: On Board The Titanic And Set On Collision Course
Carnival Corporation is down 84% off its all-time high and 77% since the offset of the pandemic, but still remains a sell in our opinion. The British-American cruise operator has been without any doubt one of the biggest losers since the offset of the pandemic. Things have been going from bad to worse as macroeconomic headwinds weigh themselves heavily against the most popular cruise operator. As future prospects still look bleak, the company seems to be set on a collision course, with time slowly running out.
Carnival: Enormous Risk For LT Common Stockholders
Carnival has several improving metrics as COVID-19 wanes, which may make the stock tempting to investors. However, the company has taken on so much debt and issued so many shares that there will be nothing left on the bones for long-term common shareholders. Just how bad is it? It's bad. Let's take a look.
Shareholder Returns
| CCL | US Hospitality | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 10.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% |
| 1Y | -64.9% | -34.1% | -20.5% |
Return vs Industry: CCL underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -33.4% over the past year.
Return vs Market: CCL underperformed the US Market which returned -20.8% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| CCL volatility | |
|---|---|
| CCL Average Weekly Movement | 10.5% |
| Hospitality Industry Average Movement | 9.4% |
| Market Average Movement | 7.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 16.5% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 3.1% |
Stable Share Price: CCL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.
Volatility Over Time: CCL's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1972 | 40,000 | Arnold Donald | https://www.carnivalcorp.com |
Carnival Corporation & plc operates as a leisure travel company. Its ships visit approximately 700 ports under the Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), Seabourn, Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK), and Cunard brand names. The company also provides port destinations and other services, as well as owns and owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motor coaches.
Carnival Corporation & Fundamentals Summary
| CCL fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | US$10.78b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$9.42b |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$3.51b |
3.1x
P/S Ratio-1.2x
P/E RatioIs CCL overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| CCL income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$3.51b |
| Cost of Revenue | US$3.83b |
| Gross Profit | -US$325.00m |
| Other Expenses | US$9.09b |
| Earnings | -US$9.42b |
Last Reported Earnings
Feb 28, 2022
Next Earnings Date
Jun 24, 2022
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -8.31 |
| Gross Margin | -9.27% |
| Net Profit Margin | -268.73% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 338.5% |
How did CCL perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonValuation
Is CCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CCL?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is CCL's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$10.78b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 11.4x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -10x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does CCL's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| CCL PS Ratio vs Peers |
|---|
| Company | PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 4.1x |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: CCL is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does CCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the U.S. Hospitality Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: CCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (1.6x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is CCL's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 3.1x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 3x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: CCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of CCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: CCL ($9.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($30.52)
Significantly Below Fair Value: CCL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CCL's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.
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Future Growth
How is Carnival Corporation & forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?
Future Growth Score
5/6Future Growth Score 5/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE
58.6%
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CCL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).
Earnings vs Market: CCL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: CCL is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CCL's revenue (22.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (8.3% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CCL's revenue (22.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: CCL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.8%).
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Past Performance
How has Carnival Corporation & performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score
0/6Past Performance Score 0/6
Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE
-64.1%
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: CCL is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: CCL is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CCL is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 64.1% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CCL's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: CCL is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (152.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: CCL has a negative Return on Equity (-91.35%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Discover strong past performing companies
Financial Health
How is Carnival Corporation &'s financial position?
Financial Health Score
0/6Financial Health Score 0/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: CCL's short term assets ($8.1B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($10.9B).
Long Term Liabilities: CCL's short term assets ($8.1B) do not cover its long term liabilities ($32.1B).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: CCL's net debt to equity ratio (271.3%) is considered high.
Reducing Debt: CCL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 40.3% to 338.5% over the past 5 years.
Balance Sheet
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: CCL has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if CCL has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.
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Dividend
What is Carnival Corporation & current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score
0/6Dividend Score 0/6
Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage
0.56%
Forecast Dividend Yield
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CCL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CCL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CCL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CCL's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: CCL is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CCL has not reported any payouts.
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Management
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
8.9yrs
Average management tenure
CEO
Arnold Donald (66 yo)
8.92yrs
Tenure
US$15,063,788
Compensation
Mr. Arnold W. Donald serves as Chairman and Director at World Travel and Tourism Council. He has been President and Chief Executive Officer of Carnival plc and Carnival Corporation & plc since 2013. Recent...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Arnold's total compensation ($USD15.06M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD13.69M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Arnold's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Leadership Team
Experienced Management: CCL's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.9 years average tenure).
Board Members
Experienced Board: CCL's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 14.4 years average tenure).
Ownership
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: CCL insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Ownership Breakdown
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.
Top Shareholders
Company Information
Carnival Corporation & plc's employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
Key Information
- Name: Carnival Corporation & plc
- Ticker: CCL
- Exchange: NYSE
- Founded: 1972
- Industry: Hotels, Resorts and Cruise Lines
- Sector: Consumer Services
- Implied Market Cap: US$10.776b
- Shares outstanding: 1.13b
- Website: https://www.carnivalcorp.com
Number of Employees
Location
- Carnival Corporation & plc
- Carnival Place
- 3655 N.W. 87th Avenue
- Miami
- Florida
- 33178-2428
- United States
Listings
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2022/06/23 00:00 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2022/06/23 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2022/02/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2021/11/30 |
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.