We Think Boyd Gaming (NYSE:BYD) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 31, 2021
NYSE:BYD

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE:BYD) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Boyd Gaming

What Is Boyd Gaming's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2020 Boyd Gaming had debt of US$3.99b, up from US$3.81b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$506.6m, its net debt is less, at about US$3.48b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NYSE:BYD Debt to Equity History January 31st 2021

How Strong Is Boyd Gaming's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Boyd Gaming had liabilities of US$521.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$5.00b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had US$506.6m in cash and US$44.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$4.97b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$5.04b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Boyd Gaming shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (7.1), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.93 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Worse, Boyd Gaming's EBIT was down 53% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Boyd Gaming can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Boyd Gaming recorded free cash flow worth 69% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

To be frank both Boyd Gaming's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider Boyd Gaming to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Boyd Gaming has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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