Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Valuation Check After Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy Upgrade and Macau-Las Vegas Strength

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) grabbed fresh attention after Goldman Sachs moved the stock onto its Conviction Buy list, highlighting stronger Las Vegas performance and improving Macau trends as key drivers behind the recent share strength.

See our latest analysis for Wynn Resorts.

That upgrade lands on top of a powerful run, with the share price up strongly so far this year and a solid one year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum is still building as investors reassess Wynn's earnings and cash flow potential.

If Wynn's reopening and travel recovery story appeals to you, it might be a good time to discover other consumer facing names through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with the share price already up sharply and trading not far below bullish analyst targets, the real question is whether Wynn still offers upside from here or if the market has already priced in its next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.1% Undervalued

With the narrative fair value sitting around 143 dollars versus a last close of 126.04 dollars, the current price implies notable upside if those assumptions land.

The imminent launch of Wynn Al Marjan Island, with first mover advantage and limited near term competition in a potentially multi billion dollar new market, is a major forward catalyst that is currently underappreciated by investors and could drive a meaningful step change in both consolidated revenue and EBITDAR.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady revenue growth, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple all combine to justify that upside target? The narrative’s detailed financial roadmap might surprise you. Want to see which specific long term projections do the heavy lifting in this fair value call?

Result: Fair Value of $143.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated Macau exposure and ambitious UAE spending plans could quickly challenge this upside narrative if policy, travel or project returns disappoint.

Find out about the key risks to this Wynn Resorts narrative.

Another Lens on Value

Our DCF model paints a cooler picture, putting Wynn’s fair value near 95 dollars, below the current 126.04 dollars share price and implying the stock screens as overvalued on cash flows, not undervalued. Which story do you trust more: the upbeat narrative or stricter cash math?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Wynn Resorts for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 911 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Wynn Resorts Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a complete view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Wynn Resorts research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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