Results: Wingstop Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Wingstop Inc. (NASDAQ:WING) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$245 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues US$176m disappointed slightly, at5.2% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of US$1.02 coming in 12% above what was anticipated. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Wingstop after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the 26 analysts covering Wingstop are now predicting revenues of US$831.6m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 22% to US$4.87 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$862.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.02 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Wingstop

The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$324, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Wingstop at US$430 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$185. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Wingstop's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 11% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Wingstop is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Wingstop. They also downgraded Wingstop's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Wingstop's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Wingstop analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Wingstop you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.