Udemy (UDMY) Valuation: Assessing Opportunity After Profit Turnaround and Share Buyback Completion

Udemy (UDMY) reported quarterly earnings that showed a move into profitability, reversing last year’s loss. The company also wrapped up a substantial share buyback, drawing investor interest and sparking conversation about its outlook.

See our latest analysis for Udemy.

Udemy’s swing back to profitability and the just-completed buyback might have drawn attention, but momentum in the stock has faded. Its share price is down 19.5% over the last month and 37.5% year-to-date, with a one-year total shareholder return of -40%. In short, recent financial progress hasn’t yet translated to positive stock performance, and long-term investors are still deep in the red since the company’s public debut.

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The question now is whether Udemy’s struggling share price reflects an undervalued opportunity for investors, or if the market has already accounted for its recent turnaround and future growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 49% Undervalued

With a narrative fair value of $10.17 calculated using a 7.08% discount rate, the latest close at $5.15 puts Udemy trading at a steep discount. That stark pricing gap has sparked debate about how much upside the market is actually leaving on the table.

Strategic expansion in international markets, particularly through local partnerships in high-growth regions (e.g., Latin America, India, Japan) and region-specific market activation, is already producing double-digit ARR growth and higher retention rates in markets like Japan. This points toward strong long-term revenue diversification and reduced dependence on slower-growing North American markets.

Read the complete narrative.

Want the story behind this valuation? The most popular narrative peels back the layers on how Udemy's regional diversification, business model shift, and extraordinary profit assumptions form the core of its bullish thesis. Ready to find out what bold numbers power this upside view? Dive in for the full forecast.

Result: Fair Value of $10.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weakness in Udemy’s consumer segment and potential losses of large enterprise clients could undermine the bullish case going forward.

Find out about the key risks to this Udemy narrative.

Build Your Own Udemy Narrative

Curious to see if your perspective lines up with this view, or simply want to analyze the numbers yourself? Building your own Udemy narrative takes just a few minutes, so why not Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Udemy.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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