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RRGB

Red Robin Gourmet BurgersNasdaqGS:RRGB Stock Report

Last Price

US$15.62

Market Cap

US$245.5m

7D

-4.7%

1Y

-38.5%

Updated

18 Jan, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
RRGB fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health2/6
Dividends0/6

RRGB Stock Overview

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises full-service and casual-dining restaurants.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Competitors

Chipotle Mexican Grill

NYSE:CMG

US$42.2b

Restaurant Brands International

NYSE:QSR

US$26.3b

Domino's Pizza

NYSE:DPZ

US$17.2b

Texas Roadhouse

NasdaqGS:TXRH

US$6.1b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$15.62
52 Week HighUS$41.34
52 Week LowUS$14.36
Beta2.75
1 Month Change-1.33%
3 Month Change-23.62%
1 Year Change-38.48%
3 Year Change-51.86%
5 Year Change-68.48%
Change since IPO27.82%

Recent News & Updates

Jan 04

Red Robin: Omicron Surge Could Stunt Recovery

Red Robin was one of the worst-performing restaurants in 2021 despite the re-opening trade, giving up all of its early gains to close down 14% for the year. The underperformance can be attributed to underwhelming comp sales performance, declining revenue vs. pre-COVID-19 levels, and continued net losses per share. While the company was set up for a decent Q4 helped by Donato's and retained off-premise sales, the emergence of the Omicron variant could stunt the sales recovery further. While Red Robin remains oversold medium-term, the much slower earnings recovery relative to peers suggests that there are much better ways to play the restaurant space.

Dec 16
Does Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

Does Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Nov 22

Red Robin Gourmet: Staffing Challenges Persist In Q3

Red Robin released its Q3 results earlier this month, reporting a ~34% increase in comparable store sales year-over-year, and a 0.6% increase on a two-year basis. Unfortunately, comp sales are tracking slightly above 2019 levels, unit growth has left a lot to be desired, explaining the 6% decline in revenue relative to 2019. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures and staffing challenges have weighed on operating hours and margins, with restaurant-level operating margins down sharply vs. Q3 2019. After a more than 50% decline, Red Robin is short-term oversold, but I still don't see enough of a margin of safety at current levels from a valuation standpoint.

Nov 08
A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB)

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB)

How far off is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. ( NASDAQ:RRGB ) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent...

Sep 15

Red Robin: Staffing Challenges Weigh On Q2 Results

Red Robin released its Q2 results last month, reporting a top and bottom-line, with revenue of just ~$277 million, down 10% from Q2 2019 levels. These disappointing results were attributed to staffing challenges, commodity/wage inflation, one-time hiring costs, and jurisdictional capacity requirements, weighing on traffic and restaurant-level margins. Fortunately, the company has had some success hiring, and its Donatos roll-out has continued at a rapid pace, and locations with Donatos continue to outperform the system. Having said that, with Red Robin trading at more than 30x FY2023 earnings estimates, I still don't see enough of a margin of safety to justify investing at current levels.

Shareholder Returns

RRGBUS HospitalityUS Market
7D-4.7%0.6%-0.3%
1Y-38.5%-0.3%13.7%

Return vs Industry: RRGB underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -0.3% over the past year.

Return vs Market: RRGB underperformed the US Market which returned 13.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is RRGB's price volatile compared to industry and market?
RRGB volatility
RRGB Average Weekly Movement7.0%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement7.8%
Market Average Movement6.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.4%

Stable Share Price: RRGB is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: RRGB's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
196921,374Paul J. Murphyhttps://www.redrobin.com

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises full-service and casual-dining restaurants. The company's restaurants primarily offer burgers; various appetizers, salads, soups, seafood, and other entrees; and desserts, milkshakes, alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. As of March 3, 2021, it operated approximately 540 Red Robin restaurants across the United States and Canada, including locations operating under franchise agreements.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Fundamentals Summary

How do Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
RRGB fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$245.49m
Earnings (TTM)-US$68.02m
Revenue (TTM)US$1.08b

0.2x

P/S Ratio

-3.6x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
RRGB income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$1.08b
Cost of RevenueUS$917.73m
Gross ProfitUS$162.01m
ExpensesUS$230.03m
Earnings-US$68.02m

Last Reported Earnings

Oct 03, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-4.33
Gross Margin15.00%
Net Profit Margin-6.30%
Debt/Equity Ratio163.4%

How did RRGB perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: RRGB ($16.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($47.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RRGB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: RRGB is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Hospitality industry average.

PE vs Market: RRGB is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate RRGB's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: RRGB is good value based on its PB Ratio (2.7x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (3.1x).


Future Growth

How is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

118.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: RRGB is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: RRGB is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: RRGB is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: RRGB's revenue (8.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: RRGB's revenue (8.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if RRGB's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Past Performance

How has Red Robin Gourmet Burgers performed over the past 5 years?

-66.5%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: RRGB is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: RRGB is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: RRGB is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 66.5% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare RRGB's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: RRGB is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (79.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: RRGB has a negative Return on Equity (-70.73%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: RRGB's short term assets ($82.1M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($211.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: RRGB's short term assets ($82.1M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($613.9M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: RRGB's net debt to equity ratio (145%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: RRGB's debt to equity ratio has increased from 82.8% to 163.4% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Whilst unprofitable RRGB has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if it maintains its current positive free cash flow level.

Forecast Cash Runway: RRGB is unprofitable but has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years, due to free cash flow being positive and growing by 18.2% per year.


Dividend

What is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate RRGB's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate RRGB's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if RRGB's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if RRGB's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of RRGB's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.6yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Paul J. Murphy (66 yo)

2.25yrs

Tenure

US$4,319,504

Compensation

Mr. Paul J. B. Murphy, III, has been President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. since October 03, 2019. Mr. Murphy was the Executive Chairman at Noodles & Company si...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Paul J.'s total compensation ($USD4.32M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.10M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Paul J.'s compensation with company performance.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: RRGB's management team is considered experienced (2.6 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: RRGB's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.
  • Ticker: RRGB
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1969
  • Industry: Restaurants
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Implied Market Cap: US$245.487m
  • Shares outstanding: 15.72m
  • Website: https://www.redrobin.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.
  • 6312 South Fiddler’s Green Circle
  • Suite 200 North
  • Greenwood Village
  • Colorado
  • 80111
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/01/18 23:50
End of Day Share Price2022/01/18 00:00
Earnings2021/10/03
Annual Earnings2020/12/27


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.