Grand Canyon Education (NasdaqGS:LOPE) - Share price, News & Analysis

LOPE fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

LOPE Stock Overview

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 63% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 6.27% per year

Risk Analysis

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Grand Canyon Education Competitors

Graham Holdings

NYSE:GHC

US$3.0b

Chegg

NYSE:CHGG

US$2.3b

Coursera

NYSE:COUR

US$2.1b

Laureate Education

NasdaqGS:LAUR

US$2.0b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Grand Canyon Education
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$88.05
52 Week High	US$102.04
52 Week Low	US$70.00
Beta	0.49
1 Month Change	-12.61%
3 Month Change	3.93%
1 Year Change	-6.32%
3 Year Change	-24.94%
5 Year Change	13.04%
Change since IPO	643.04%

Shareholder Returns

	LOPE	US Consumer Services	US Market
7D	0.8%	4.6%	0.1%
1Y	-6.3%	-55.6%	-12.7%

Return vs Industry: LOPE exceeded the US Consumer Services industry which returned -57% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LOPE exceeded the US Market which returned -11.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LOPE's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LOPE volatility
LOPE Average Weekly Movement	3.7%
Consumer Services Industry Average Movement	11.0%
Market Average Movement	8.0%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	17.0%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: LOPE is less volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LOPE's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1949	4,318	Brian Mueller	https://www.gce.com

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company’s technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services.

Grand Canyon Education Fundamentals Summary

How do Grand Canyon Education's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LOPE fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.79b
Earnings (TTM)	US$240.31m
Revenue (TTM)	US$903.76m

11.7x

P/E Ratio

3.1x

P/S Ratio

Is LOPE overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LOPE income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$903.76m
Cost of Revenue	US$391.79m
Gross Profit	US$511.98m
Other Expenses	US$271.67m
Earnings	US$240.31m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	7.55
Gross Margin	56.65%
Net Profit Margin	26.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did LOPE perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Grand Canyon Education undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: LOPE ($88.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($237.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LOPE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: LOPE is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.7x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (18.2x).

PE vs Market: LOPE is good value based on its PE Ratio (11.7x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: LOPE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.9x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: LOPE is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (1.5x).

Future Growth

How is Grand Canyon Education forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

6.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LOPE's forecast earnings growth (6.3% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: LOPE's earnings (6.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (12.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LOPE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: LOPE's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LOPE's revenue (4.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has Grand Canyon Education performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

7.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LOPE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LOPE's current net profit margins (26.6%) are lower than last year (30.7%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LOPE's earnings have grown by 7.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: LOPE's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: LOPE had negative earnings growth (-8.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Services industry average (-13.3%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: LOPE's Return on Equity (34%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is Grand Canyon Education's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LOPE's short term assets ($380.4M) exceed its short term liabilities ($132.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: LOPE's short term assets ($380.4M) exceed its long term liabilities ($79.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LOPE is debt free.

Reducing Debt: LOPE has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 8.3%.

Debt Coverage: LOPE has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: LOPE has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Grand Canyon Education current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOPE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOPE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOPE's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LOPE has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Brian Mueller (67 yo)

13.83yrs

Tenure

US$1,843,058

Compensation

Mr. Brian E. Mueller has been the Chief Executive Officer of Grand Canyon Education, Inc. since July 1, 2008 and also serves as its President. Mr. Mueller serves as Chairman, President, Chief Executive Off...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Brian's total compensation ($USD1.84M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.81M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Brian's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LOPE's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: LOPE's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: LOPE insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/19 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/19 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31