El Pollo Loco Holdings (NasdaqGS:LOCO) - Share price, News & Analysis

LOCO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

LOCO Stock Overview

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (14.1x) is below the US market (15.2x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 19.53% per year

Earnings have grown 28.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for LOCO from our risk checks.

El Pollo Loco Holdings Competitors

Domino's Pizza

NYSE:DPZ

US$12.8b

Texas Roadhouse

NasdaqGS:TXRH

US$5.4b

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store

NasdaqGS:CBRL

US$2.4b

Wingstop

NasdaqGS:WING

US$2.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for El Pollo Loco Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$10.44
52 Week High	US$19.25
52 Week Low	US$9.74
Beta	1.38
1 Month Change	1.46%
3 Month Change	-21.21%
1 Year Change	-38.22%
3 Year Change	-0.57%
5 Year Change	-24.62%
Change since IPO	-56.55%

Recent News & Updates

May 26

El Pollo Loco Holdings: Not As Tasty As You Think

At first glance, shares of El Pollo Loco Holdings look quite cheap on both an absolute basis and relative to similar restaurant chains. Revenue and earnings have continued to grow, but the company has not experienced any improvement in cash flows. This absence of growth likely makes the company worth less than it otherwise would be, with shares probably being more or less fairly valued now.

Shareholder Returns

	LOCO	US Hospitality	US Market
7D	2.7%	0.2%	1.0%
1Y	-38.2%	-27.5%	-15.1%

Return vs Industry: LOCO underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -27.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LOCO underperformed the US Market which returned -15.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LOCO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LOCO volatility
LOCO Average Weekly Movement	5.7%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement	9.2%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: LOCO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LOCO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1975	4,626	Larry Roberts	https://www.elpolloloco.com

El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., develops, franchises, licenses, and operates quick-service restaurants under the El Pollo Loco name. As of May 04, 2022, the company operated 480 restaurants comprising 189 company-operated and 291 franchised restaurants located in California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Louisiana. It also licenses one restaurant in the Philippines.

El Pollo Loco Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do El Pollo Loco Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LOCO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$383.70m
Earnings (TTM)	US$27.27m
Revenue (TTM)	US$456.69m

14.1x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Is LOCO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LOCO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$456.69m
Cost of Revenue	US$361.35m
Gross Profit	US$95.34m
Other Expenses	US$68.07m
Earnings	US$27.27m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.74
Gross Margin	20.88%
Net Profit Margin	5.97%
Debt/Equity Ratio	12.7%

How did LOCO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is El Pollo Loco Holdings undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

14.07x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: LOCO ($10.44) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($6.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LOCO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (16.8x).

PE vs Market: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the US market (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: LOCO is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: LOCO is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (2.5x).

Future Growth

How is El Pollo Loco Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

19.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LOCO's forecast earnings growth (19.5% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: LOCO's earnings (19.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (13% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LOCO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: LOCO's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LOCO's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if LOCO's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Past Performance

How has El Pollo Loco Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

28.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LOCO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LOCO's current net profit margins (6%) are higher than last year (5.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LOCO's earnings have grown significantly by 28.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: LOCO's earnings growth over the past year (9.8%) is below its 5-year average (28.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LOCO earnings growth over the past year (9.8%) underperformed the Hospitality industry 157.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: LOCO's Return on Equity (8.6%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is El Pollo Loco Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LOCO's short term assets ($46.5M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($71.0M).

Long Term Liabilities: LOCO's short term assets ($46.5M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($222.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LOCO's net debt to equity ratio (4.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: LOCO's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 37.3% to 12.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: LOCO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (106%).

Interest Coverage: LOCO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (24x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is El Pollo Loco Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOCO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate LOCO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOCO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if LOCO's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as LOCO has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

6.1yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Larry Roberts (61 yo)

8.83yrs

Tenure

US$1,499,832

Compensation

Mr. Laurance Roberts, also known as Larry, has been President, Chief Executive Officer, Interim Chief Financial Officer & Director at El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. since March 9, 2022. He served as Chief Fi...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Larry's total compensation ($USD1.50M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD2.63M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Larry's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: LOCO's board of directors are considered experienced (6.1 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/26 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/29