The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. It’s only natural to consider a company’s balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Huazhu Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company’s debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is Huazhu Group’s Net Debt?
As you can see below, Huazhu Group had CN¥8.71b of debt at September 2019, down from CN¥9.24b a year prior. However, it does have CN¥4.08b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥4.64b.
How Healthy Is Huazhu Group’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Huazhu Group had liabilities of CN¥10.4b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥25.8b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥4.08b and CN¥664.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥31.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Huazhu Group has a market capitalization of CN¥68.3b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
In order to size up a company’s debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
We’d say that Huazhu Group’s moderate net debt to EBITDA ratio ( being 1.5), indicates prudence when it comes to debt. And its strong interest cover of 14.3 times, makes us even more comfortable. The good news is that Huazhu Group has increased its EBIT by 7.1% over twelve months, which should ease any concerns about debt repayment. There’s no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Huazhu Group can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Huazhu Group recorded free cash flow worth 64% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Huazhu Group’s interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14’s goalkeeper. But truth be told we feel its level of total liabilities does undermine this impression a bit. All these things considered, it appears that Huazhu Group can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it’s worth keeping an eye on this one. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you’re interested in Huazhu Group, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
At the end of the day, it’s often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It’s free.
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