Does Dunkin’ Brands Group’s (NASDAQ:DNKN) Share Price Gain of 89% Match Its Business Performance?

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By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, the Dunkin’ Brands Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:DNKN) share price is up 89% in the last three years, clearly besting than the market return of around 39% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven’t been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 17% in the last year, including dividends.

Check out our latest analysis for Dunkin’ Brands Group

To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Dunkin’ Brands Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 31% per year. The average annual share price increase of 24% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock.

The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NasdaqGS:DNKN Past and Future Earnings, June 21st 2019
NasdaqGS:DNKN Past and Future Earnings, June 21st 2019

It is of course excellent to see how Dunkin’ Brands Group has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Dunkin’ Brands Group the TSR over the last 3 years was 102%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We’re pleased to report that Dunkin’ Brands Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 17% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 14%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how Dunkin’ Brands Group scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.