Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (NasdaqGS:CBRL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CBRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CBRL ($89.7) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($158.09)

CBRL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	4/6

CBRL Stock Overview

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States.

Rewards

Trading at 43.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 7.16% per year

Risk Analysis

Has a high level of debt

Dividend of 5.8% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (4.2%) are lower than last year (9.5%)

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$89.70
52 Week High	US$151.19
52 Week Low	US$82.29
Beta	1.25
1 Month Change	-14.77%
3 Month Change	-23.05%
1 Year Change	-39.85%
3 Year Change	-47.46%
5 Year Change	-46.37%
Change since IPO	1,566.45%

Shareholder Returns

	CBRL	US Hospitality	US Market
7D	5.3%	4.6%	6.6%
1Y	-39.8%	-30.2%	-18.4%

Return vs Industry: CBRL underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -30.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CBRL underperformed the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CBRL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CBRL volatility
CBRL Average Weekly Movement	6.6%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement	9.2%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.6%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: CBRL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CBRL's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1969	70,000	Sandy Cochran	https://www.crackerbarrel.com

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company’s Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Fundamentals Summary

How do Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CBRL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$2.04b
Earnings (TTM)	US$134.88m
Revenue (TTM)	US$3.22b

15.2x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is CBRL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CBRL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$3.22b
Cost of Revenue	US$2.14b
Gross Profit	US$1.09b
Other Expenses	US$951.35m
Earnings	US$134.88m

Last Reported Earnings

Apr 29, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.92
Gross Margin	33.72%
Net Profit Margin	4.19%
Debt/Equity Ratio	66.1%

How did CBRL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

5.8%

Current Dividend Yield

85%

Payout Ratio

Does CBRL pay a reliable dividends?

See CBRL dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy CBRL by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jul 14 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Aug 05 2022
Days until Ex dividend	17 days
Days until Dividend pay date	39 days

Does CBRL pay a reliable dividends?

See CBRL dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CBRL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CBRL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CBRL. This is calculated by dividing CBRL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CBRL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$2.04b

CBRL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.9x
PEG Ratio	2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CBRL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CBRL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CBRL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.5x

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CBRL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the peer average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CBRL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CBRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (16.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CBRL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CBRL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.2x
Fair PE Ratio	20.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CBRL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CBRL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CBRL ($89.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($158.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CBRL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: CBRL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (2.1x)

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Future Growth

How is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

7.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CBRL's forecast earnings growth (7.2% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: CBRL's earnings (7.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: CBRL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: CBRL's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CBRL's revenue (3.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CBRL's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (27.7%)

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Past Performance

How has Cracker Barrel Old Country Store performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-13.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CBRL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: CBRL's current net profit margins (4.2%) are lower than last year (9.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CBRL's earnings have declined by 13.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CBRL's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CBRL had negative earnings growth (-44.1%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (119.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CBRL's Return on Equity (23.9%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CBRL's short term assets ($294.1M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($465.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: CBRL's short term assets ($294.1M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.2B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CBRL's net debt to equity ratio (61.7%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CBRL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 67.7% to 66.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CBRL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (52.5%).

Interest Coverage: CBRL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (5.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

5.80%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: CBRL's dividend (5.8%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: CBRL's dividend (5.8%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.24%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: CBRL's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: CBRL's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: At its current payout ratio (85%), CBRL's payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (108.3%), CBRL's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Sandy Cochran (63 yo)

11.58yrs

Tenure

US$7,581,052

Compensation

Ms. Sandra Brophy Cochran, also known as Sandy, has been the Chief Executive Officer and Director of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. since September 12, 2011 and its President since November 3, 2010...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Sandy's total compensation ($USD7.58M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.47M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Sandy's compensation has increased by more than 20% whilst company earnings have fallen more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CBRL's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: CBRL's board of directors are considered experienced (7.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/04/29
Annual Earnings	2021/07/30