NasdaqGS:CAKE

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated engages in the operation of restaurants. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential with worrying balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Cheesecake Factory's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: CAKE's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

8.6%

CAKE

-2.5%

US Hospitality

-2.4%

US Market


1 Year Return

-19.8%

CAKE

-16.2%

US Hospitality

18.2%

US Market

Return vs Industry: CAKE underperformed the US Hospitality industry which returned -15.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CAKE underperformed the US Market which returned 19.5% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

CAKEIndustryMarket
7 Day8.6%-2.5%-2.4%
30 Day10.2%-1.9%4.2%
90 Day36.9%11.3%6.3%
1 Year-18.1%-19.8%-14.9%-16.2%20.9%18.2%
3 Year-20.5%-26.2%-12.1%-17.7%41.2%31.8%
5 Year-27.3%-34.9%14.7%2.7%84.8%63.9%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Cheesecake Factory's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Cheesecake Factory undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

4.17x

Price to Book (PB) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: CAKE ($32.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($24.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CAKE is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: CAKE is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Hospitality industry average.

PE vs Market: CAKE is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CAKE's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: CAKE is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4.2x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (2.4x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Cheesecake Factory forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

83.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: CAKE is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.2%).

Earnings vs Market: CAKE is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: CAKE's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CAKE's revenue (12.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CAKE's revenue (12.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: CAKE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22.6%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Cheesecake Factory performed over the past 5 years?

-18.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CAKE is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: CAKE is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CAKE is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 18.7% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare CAKE's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: CAKE is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Hospitality industry (-49.7%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: CAKE has a negative Return on Equity (-23%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Cheesecake Factory's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CAKE's short term assets ($454.6M) do not cover its short term liabilities ($532.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: CAKE's short term assets ($454.6M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.8B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CAKE's debt to equity ratio (67.6%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: CAKE's debt to equity ratio has increased from 18.9% to 67.6% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CAKE's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (26.4%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if CAKE's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Cheesecake Factory current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.27%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CAKE's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CAKE's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CAKE's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CAKE's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: CAKE is not paying a notable dividend for the US market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of CAKE's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

David Overton (74 yo)

28.67yrs

Tenure

US$6,715,889

Compensation

Mr. David M. Overton Founded Grand Lux Cafe, LLC in 1999. Mr. Overton Co-founded The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's predecessor company in 1972. He has been Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Chees ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: David's total compensation ($USD6.72M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD4.44M).

Compensation vs Earnings: David's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
David Overton
Chairman & CEO28.67yrsUS$6.72m6.93%
$ 101.7m
David Gordon
President7.67yrsUS$2.24m0.065%
$ 960.5k
Matthew Clark
Executive VP & CFO3.25yrsUS$1.82m0.034%
$ 503.4k
Scarlett May
Executive VP2.42yrsUS$1.33m0.018%
$ 258.4k
Keith Carango
President of The Cheesecake Factory Bakery Incorporated2.5yrsUS$1.08m0.055%
$ 804.1k
Cheryl Slomann
Chief Accounting Officer15.67yrsUS$387.59k0.066%
$ 972.1k
Stacy Feit
Vice President of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Donald Evans
Chief Marketing Officer & Senior VP9.17yrsno datano data
Dina Barmasse-Gray
Senior Vice President of Human Resources10.67yrsno datano data
Donald Moore
Chief Culinary Officer & Executive VPno datano datano data
Spero Alex
Senior Vice President of Operations - The Cheesecake Factory Restaurantsno datano datano data

8.4yrs

Average Tenure

54.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: CAKE's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.4 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
David Overton
Chairman & CEO28.67yrsUS$6.72m6.93%
$ 101.7m
David Pittaway
Independent Director11.42yrsUS$220.00k0.029%
$ 423.8k
Herbert Simon
Independent Director9.33yrsUS$205.00k0.43%
$ 6.3m
Laurence Mindel
Independent Director8.58yrsUS$205.00k0.028%
$ 403.8k
Jerome Kransdorf
Independent Lead Director8.58yrsUS$237.50k0.030%
$ 444.1k
Alexander Cappello
Independent Director12.67yrsUS$217.50k0.011%
$ 164.5k
Edie Ames
Independent Director3.83yrsUS$205.00k0.013%
$ 191.9k
Janice Meyer
Independent Director0.67yrno data0.012%
$ 170.6k
Paul Ginsberg
Independent Directorno datano datano data

9.0yrs

Average Tenure

71yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: CAKE's board of directors are considered experienced (9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
  • Ticker: CAKE
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1972
  • Industry: Restaurants
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: US$1.468b
  • Shares outstanding: 45.46m
  • Website: https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
  • 26901 Malibu Hills Road
  • Calabasas Hills
  • Calabasas
  • California
  • 91301
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
CAKENasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesCommon StockUSUSDSep 1992
CF2DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURSep 1992
CAKE *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon StockMXMXNSep 1992

Biography

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated engages in the operation of restaurants. As of February 26, 2020, it owned and operated 294 restaurants in the United States and Canada under the brands of The Cheesecak ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/10/20 00:48
End of Day Share Price2020/10/19 00:00
Earnings2020/06/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.