A Look at Booking Holdings (BKNG) Valuation Following Strong Q3 Earnings, Upbeat Guidance, and Wedbush Upgrade

Booking Holdings (BKNG) delivered third-quarter earnings that topped expectations, supported by its Connected Trip strategy, expanding loyalty programs, and AI features. The company also raised its revenue and profit guidance for the rest of the year.

See our latest analysis for Booking Holdings.

After a year marked by ambitious tech rollouts and upbeat financials, Booking Holdings’ share price sits at $4,914.69. While the 1-year total shareholder return is down 4.8%, longer-term investors have still seen outstanding gains. A 139% total return over three years highlights the company’s growth runway and resilient business model. Recent news, such as its Wedbush upgrade and continued momentum in loyalty and AI initiatives, indicates that investors are considering both near-term volatility and the company’s ability to build lasting value.

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With Booking Holdings delivering strong results and offering impressive guidance for the year ahead, investors are left to wonder whether the current share price still reflects untapped value or if future growth is now fully priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.8% Undervalued

Market watchers are taking note as the most widely followed narrative values Booking Holdings at $6,207 per share. This stands well above the last close at $4,914.69 and suggests there may be meaningful upside if the key drivers of future growth play out as expected.

The company’s focus on increasing alternative accommodations and expanding its Genius loyalty program aims to strengthen customer retention and capture a broader market, potentially boosting revenue and net margins. Initiatives like the Connected Trip vision and strategic partnerships (for example, with Uber and AI organizations) are designed to offer enhanced, integrated travel experiences, likely leading to increased customer engagement and higher earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what powers this bullish fair value? This narrative leans on blockbuster profit projections, margin lift, and a daring growth outlook. Discover which forecasts sparked this high target and the numbers that could surprise even seasoned investors.

Result: Fair Value of $6,207 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifting travel behaviors and increased competition from AI-driven platforms remain real risks that could test the strength of Booking Holdings' growth story.

Find out about the key risks to this Booking Holdings narrative.

Another View: A Multiples-Based Perspective

While the fair value narrative points to significant upside, a look at Booking Holdings' price-to-earnings ratio tells a more cautious story. The current ratio sits at 31.4x, noticeably higher than both peer average at 29x and the US Hospitality industry’s 21.4x. However, it remains below the fair ratio of 37.1x. This suggests the stock commands a premium, possibly reflecting optimism around its future growth, but it could also signal valuation risk if expectations are not met.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Booking Holdings Narrative

If you have your own take on Booking Holdings or want to dig into the data yourself, it only takes a few minutes to analyze and tell your own story. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Booking Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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