Afya (NasdaqGS:AFYA) - Share price, News & Analysis

AFYA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

AFYA Stock Overview

Afya Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a medical education group in Brazil.

Rewards

Trading at 81.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 31.58% per year

Risk Analysis

Profit margins (13%) are lower than last year (24.3%)

Afya Competitors

Yduqs Participações

BOVESPA:YDUQ3

R$5.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Afya
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$11.28
52 Week High	US$28.23
52 Week Low	US$10.64
Beta	1.09
1 Month Change	-15.51%
3 Month Change	-17.30%
1 Year Change	-48.30%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-53.18%

Shareholder Returns

	AFYA	US Consumer Services	US Market
7D	-3.0%	0.5%	-2.7%
1Y	-48.3%	-55.4%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: AFYA exceeded the US Consumer Services industry which returned -55.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AFYA underperformed the US Market which returned -12.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AFYA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AFYA volatility
AFYA Average Weekly Movement	9.0%
Consumer Services Industry Average Movement	11.0%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: AFYA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 9% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AFYA's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	5,260	Virgilio Deloy Gibbon	https://www.afya.com.br

Afya Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a medical education group in Brazil. It offers educational products and services, including medical schools, medical residency preparatory courses, graduate courses, and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. The company also provides digital health services, such as subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others.

Afya Fundamentals Summary

How do Afya's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AFYA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	R$5.06b
Earnings (TTM)	R$223.33m
Revenue (TTM)	R$1.72b

22.6x

P/E Ratio

2.9x

P/S Ratio

Is AFYA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AFYA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	R$1.72b
Cost of Revenue	R$652.30m
Gross Profit	R$1.07b
Other Expenses	R$843.75m
Earnings	R$223.33m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

May 23, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	2.43
Gross Margin	62.06%
Net Profit Margin	12.99%
Debt/Equity Ratio	48.3%

How did AFYA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Afya undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: AFYA ($11.28) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($59.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFYA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: AFYA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (22.6x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (17.1x).

PE vs Market: AFYA is poor value based on its PE Ratio (22.6x) compared to the US market (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: AFYA is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: AFYA is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.7x) compared to the US Consumer Services industry average (1.5x).

Future Growth

How is Afya forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 7 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

31.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AFYA's forecast earnings growth (31.6% per year) is above the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: AFYA's earnings (31.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AFYA's revenue (19.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AFYA's revenue (19.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AFYA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.1%).

Past Performance

How has Afya performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

33.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AFYA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AFYA's current net profit margins (13%) are lower than last year (24.3%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AFYA's earnings have grown significantly by 33.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AFYA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AFYA had negative earnings growth (-23.5%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Services industry average (-11.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AFYA's Return on Equity (8.1%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Afya's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AFYA's short term assets (R$1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (R$766.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: AFYA's short term assets (R$1.2B) do not cover its long term liabilities (R$2.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AFYA's net debt to equity ratio (23.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if AFYA's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AFYA's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (43.6%).

Interest Coverage: AFYA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.9x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Afya current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.38%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AFYA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AFYA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AFYA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AFYA's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AFYA has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Virgilio Deloy Gibbon (45 yo)

2.83yrs

Tenure

Mr. Virgilio Deloy Capobianco Gibbon is Chief Executive Officer of Afya Limited since July 2019. He has been the Chief Executive Officer of Afya Brazil since August 2016. Prior to joining us, he was Chief...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AFYA's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AFYA's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/22 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31