If You Had Bought US Foods Holding (NYSE:USFD) Stock Three Years Ago, You Could Pocket A 24% Gain Today

By
Simply Wall St
Published
February 09, 2021
NYSE:USFD

Buying a low-cost index fund will get you the average market return. But in any diversified portfolio of stocks, you'll see some that fall short of the average. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) share price is up 24% in the last three years, that falls short of the market return. Disappointingly, the share price is down 9.3% in the last year.

See our latest analysis for US Foods Holding

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years of share price growth, US Foods Holding actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 42% per year. In this instance, recent extraordinary items impacted the earnings.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

We severely doubt anyone is particularly impressed with the modest 1.4% three-year revenue growth rate. So truth be told we can't see an easy explanation for the share price action, but perhaps you can...

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:USFD Earnings and Revenue Growth February 9th 2021

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, US Foods Holding shareholders took a loss of 9.3%. In contrast the market gained about 28%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. Fortunately the longer term story is brighter, with total returns averaging about 8% per year over three years. The recent sell-off could be an opportunity if the business remains sound, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long-term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand US Foods Holding better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that US Foods Holding is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

US Foods Holding is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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