Investors in Target (NYSE:TGT) have seen notable returns of 87% over the past five years

It hasn't been the best quarter for Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 17% in that time. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. In that time, it is up 67%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 94%. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for five years, so spare a thought for those caught in the 40% decline over the last three years: that's a long time to wait for profits.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

View our latest analysis for Target

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Target achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 9.2% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 11% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Target has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? Check if analysts think Target will grow revenue in the future.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Target the TSR over the last 5 years was 87%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Target provided a TSR of 14% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 13% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Target better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Target .

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com