Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 17%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (NYSE:GRDN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.6% to US$24.12 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting US$329m, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 17%, coming in at just US$0.15 per share. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the latest results, Guardian Pharmacy Services' sole analyst are now forecasting revenues of US$1.35b in 2025. This would be a credible 5.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Guardian Pharmacy Services is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.73 per share. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of US$1.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.80 in 2025. The analyst seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Guardian Pharmacy Services

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analyst has lifted their price target 6.0% to US$26.50, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Guardian Pharmacy Services' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Guardian Pharmacy Services is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Guardian Pharmacy Services. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Guardian Pharmacy Services going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Guardian Pharmacy Services' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.