OTCPK:TDPA.Y

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

TOD'S S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, creates, produces, and distributes shoes, leather goods and accessories, and apparel in Italy, Europe, the Americas, Greater China, and internationally.

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of -19.8% per year for the next 3 years

Dividend of 2.7% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (0.8%) are lower than last year (7.2%)



Snowflake Analysis

Excellent balance sheet unattractive dividend payer.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has TOD'S's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: TDPA.Y has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0%

TDPA.Y

0.4%

US Luxury

0.06%

US Market


1 Year Return

n/a

TDPA.Y

11.3%

US Luxury

19.4%

US Market

Return vs Industry: Insufficient data to determine how TDPA.Y performed against the US Luxury industry.

Return vs Market: Insufficient data to determine how TDPA.Y performed against the US Market.


Shareholder returns

TDPA.YIndustryMarket
7 Day0%0.4%0.06%
30 Day-12.1%-3.9%1.1%
90 Dayn/a7.0%8.9%
1 Yearn/a13.6%11.3%21.9%19.4%
3 Yearn/a65.8%58.2%48.9%39.3%
5 Yearn/a49.9%39.7%71.9%53.1%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is TOD'S's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is TOD'S undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

158.14x

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TDPA.Y ($4) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($3.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TDPA.Y is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TDPA.Y is poor value based on its PE Ratio (158.1x) compared to the Luxury industry average (17.9x).

PE vs Market: TDPA.Y is poor value based on its PE Ratio (158.1x) compared to the US market (18.3x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TDPA.Y's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TDPA.Y is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Luxury industry average (1.2x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is TOD'S forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

-19.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TDPA.Y's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-19.8% per year).

Earnings vs Market: TDPA.Y's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-19.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TDPA.Y's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TDPA.Y's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TDPA.Y's revenue (3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TDPA.Y's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (1.8%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has TOD'S performed over the past 5 years?

-18.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TDPA.Y has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TDPA.Y's current net profit margins (0.8%) are lower than last year (7.2%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TDPA.Y's earnings have declined by -18.6% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TDPA.Y's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: TDPA.Y had negative earnings growth (-88.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Luxury industry average (3.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: TDPA.Y's Return on Equity (0.7%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is TOD'S's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TDPA.Y's short term assets (€803.0M) exceed its short term liabilities (€489.3M).

Long Term Liabilities: TDPA.Y's short term assets (€803.0M) exceed its long term liabilities (€543.7M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TDPA.Y's debt to equity ratio (27.5%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: TDPA.Y's debt to equity ratio has increased from 5.4% to 27.5% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TDPA.Y's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (36.2%).

Interest Coverage: TDPA.Y's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.1x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TDPA.Y has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TDPA.Y's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.8x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is TOD'S's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.70%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company2.7%marketbottom25%1.4%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage1.4%forecastin3Years1.1%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: TDPA.Y's dividend (2.7%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.43%).

High Dividend: TDPA.Y's dividend (2.7%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.7%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TDPA.Y's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TDPA.Y's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (426.2%), TDPA.Y's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: TDPA.Y's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (80.4% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

€944k

CEO Compensation


CEO

Umberto di Cellere (55yo)

€943,800

Compensation

Umberto Macchi di Cellere has been Director of Tod's SpA since April 2018. 


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Umberto's total compensation ($USD1.02M) is below average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD3.81M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Umberto's compensation with company performance.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

TOD'S S.p.A.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: TOD'S S.p.A.
  • Ticker: TDPA.Y
  • Exchange: OTCPK
  • Founded:
  • Industry: Footwear
  • Sector: Consumer Durables
  • Market Cap: €1.228b
  • Listing Market Cap: €1.328b
  • Shares outstanding: 33.09m
  • Website: https://www.todsgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • TOD'S S.p.A.
  • Via Filippo Della Valle, 1
  • Sant'Elpidio a Mare
  • 63811
  • Italy

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TODG.FOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)YesOrdinary SharesUSUSDNov 2000
TOBDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesOrdinary SharesDEEURNov 2000
TODBIT (Borsa Italiana)YesOrdinary SharesITEURNov 2000
0NV4LSE (London Stock Exchange)YesOrdinary SharesGBEURNov 2000
TODMBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesOrdinary SharesGBEURNov 2000
TDPA.YOTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)ADS REP 1/10SHUSUSDMay 2012

Biography

TOD'S S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, creates, produces, and distributes shoes, leather goods and accessories, and apparel in Italy, Europe, the Americas, Greater China, and internationally. The company provides shoes and luxury leather goods under the Tod’s brand; shoe collections for women, men, and children under the Hogan brand name; casual wear under the FAY brand; and shoes, bags, small leather goods, jewelry, and sunglasses under the Roger Vivier brand names. It distributes its products through directly operated stores (DOS), franchised retail outlets, and independent multi-brand stores. As of September 30, 2018, the company operated a distribution network of 279 DOS and 118 franchised stores. The company is headquartered in Sant'Elpidio a Mare, Italy. TOD'S S.p.A. is a subsidiary of DI.VI. FINANZIARIA of DIEGO DELLA VALLE & C. S.r.l. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/19 01:34
End of Day Share Price2020/02/11 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.