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Toll Brothers

NYSE:TOL
Snowflake Description

Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
TOL
NYSE
$5B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Consumer Durables
Company description

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The last earnings update was 46 days ago. More info.


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TOL Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
-0.9%
NYSE:TOL
-0.2%
US Consumer Durables
-1.2%
US Market
1 Year Returns
-2.2%
NYSE:TOL
0.1%
US Consumer Durables
3.4%
US Market
TOL Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Toll Brothers (TOL) -0.9% -1% -6.5% -2.2% 26% 7.2%
US Consumer Durables -0.2% 0% 2.4% 0.1% 32.9% 25.4%
US Market -1.2% 0.7% 1.7% 3.4% 35.5% 41.6%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • TOL underperformed the Consumer Durables industry which returned 0.1% over the past year.
  • TOL underperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 3.4% over the past year.
Price Volatility
TOL
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market
Related Companies

Value

 Is Toll Brothers undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Toll Brothers to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Toll Brothers.

NYSE:TOL Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 16 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 10%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:TOL
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Consumer Durables Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.86
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.86 (1 + (1- 21%) (70.27%))
1.226
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.23
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.226 * 5.96%)
10.03%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:TOL using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Toll Brothers is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:TOL DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 10.03%)
2020 470.25 Analyst x2 427.36
2021 278.83 Est @ -40.71% 230.30
2022 201.67 Est @ -27.67% 151.37
2023 164.25 Est @ -18.55% 112.04
2024 144.27 Est @ -12.17% 89.44
2025 133.16 Est @ -7.7% 75.02
2026 127.07 Est @ -4.57% 65.06
2027 124.05 Est @ -2.38% 57.72
2028 123.00 Est @ -0.85% 52.01
2029 123.28 Est @ 0.23% 47.38
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $1,307.71
NYSE:TOL DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $123.28 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (10.03% – 2.73%)
$1,733.64
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $1,733.64 ÷ (1 + 10.03%)10
$666.28
NYSE:TOL Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $1,307.71 + $666.28
$1,973.99
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $1,973.99 / 143.87
$13.72
NYSE:TOL Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $13.72
Current discount Discount to share price of $36.10
= -1 x ($36.10 - $13.72) / $13.72
-163.1%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Toll Brothers is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Toll Brothers's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Toll Brothers's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-04-30) in USD $5.03
NYSE:TOL Share Price ** NYSE (2019-07-19) in USD $36.1
United States of America Consumer Durables Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 50 Publicly-Listed Consumer Durables Companies 12.74x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,081 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.87x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Toll Brothers.

NYSE:TOL PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:TOL Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 36.1 ÷ 5.03

7.17x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Toll Brothers is good value based on earnings compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average.
  • Toll Brothers is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Toll Brothers's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 7.17x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 16 Analysts
3.7%per year
United States of America Consumer Durables Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 37 Publicly-Listed Consumer Durables Companies 1.64x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,119 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.57x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:TOL PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 7.17x ÷ 3.7%

1.96x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Toll Brothers is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Toll Brothers's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-04-30) in USD $33.84
NYSE:TOL Share Price * NYSE (2019-07-19) in USD $36.1
United States of America Consumer Durables Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 71 Publicly-Listed Consumer Durables Companies 1.43x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,247 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.79x
NYSE:TOL PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:TOL Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 36.1 ÷ 33.84

1.07x

* Primary Listing of Toll Brothers.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Toll Brothers is good value based on assets compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Toll Brothers's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Consumer Durables industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Consumer Durables industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Toll Brothers has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Toll Brothers expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
3.7%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Toll Brothers expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Toll Brothers's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Toll Brothers's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
  • Toll Brothers's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:TOL Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 16 Analysts 3.7%
NYSE:TOL Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 16 Analysts 2.3%
United States of America Consumer Durables Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 16.7%
United States of America Consumer Durables Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.1%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 14%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.4%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 16 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:TOL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2021-10-31 7,637 752 668 1
2020-10-31 7,259 585 608 16
2019-10-31 7,066 436 566 15
NYSE:TOL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-04-30 7,448 843 746
2019-01-31 7,331 747 728
2018-10-31 7,143 602 748
2018-07-31 6,716 484 629
2018-04-30 6,305 396 584
2018-01-31 6,070 611 597
2017-10-31 5,815 965 535
2017-07-31 5,643 882 458
2017-04-30 5,410 408 415
2017-01-31 5,162 196 379
2016-10-31 5,170 151 382
2016-07-31 4,751 -154 415

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Toll Brothers's earnings are expected to grow by 3.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Toll Brothers's revenue is expected to grow by 2.3% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 16 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Toll Brothers Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:TOL Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2021-10-31 4.38 4.41 4.36 2.00
2020-10-31 4.23 4.95 3.25 18.00
2019-10-31 3.87 4.12 3.64 16.00
NYSE:TOL Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-04-30 5.03
2019-01-31 4.86
2018-10-31 4.92
2018-07-31 4.06
2018-04-30 3.70
2018-01-31 3.72
2017-10-31 3.30
2017-07-31 2.80
2017-04-30 2.53
2017-01-31 2.29
2016-10-31 2.27
2016-07-31 2.42

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Toll Brothers is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Toll Brothers's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Toll Brothers has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Toll Brothers performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Toll Brothers's growth in the last year to its industry (Consumer Durables).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Toll Brothers's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years.
  • Toll Brothers's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (27.6% vs 19.5%)
  • Toll Brothers's earnings growth has exceeded the US Consumer Durables industry average in the past year (27.6% vs 23.3%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Toll Brothers's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Toll Brothers Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:TOL Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-04-30 7,447.87 745.61 702.88
2019-01-31 7,330.97 728.09 691.16
2018-10-31 7,143.26 748.15 686.19
2018-07-31 6,715.93 629.05 667.31
2018-04-30 6,305.48 584.36 647.89
2018-01-31 6,069.80 597.19 627.99
2017-10-31 5,815.06 535.50 607.82
2017-07-31 5,642.60 458.00 588.76
2017-04-30 5,409.63 414.92 569.09
2017-01-31 5,161.67 379.33 550.68
2016-10-31 5,169.51 382.10 535.38
2016-07-31 4,751.26 414.88 510.05
2016-04-30 4,509.34 376.15 491.25
2016-01-31 4,246.36 355.02 470.59
2015-10-31 4,171.25 363.17 455.11
2015-07-31 4,084.74 347.53 450.42
2015-04-30 4,113.58 378.49 444.13
2015-01-31 4,121.37 375.78 435.66
2014-10-31 3,911.60 340.03 426.42
2014-07-31 3,605.45 303.41 398.24
2014-04-30 3,237.75 252.30 377.23
2014-01-31 2,893.38 211.75 357.56
2013-10-31 2,674.30 170.61 338.53
2013-07-31 2,262.59 487.12 320.94
2013-04-30 2,127.75 502.17 306.96
2013-01-31 1,985.43 494.36 295.67
2012-10-31 1,882.78 487.15 287.26
2012-07-31 1,677.74 90.77 281.23

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Toll Brothers has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Toll Brothers used its assets more efficiently than the US Consumer Durables industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Toll Brothers has significantly improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Toll Brothers's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Consumer Durables industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Toll Brothers has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Toll Brothers's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Toll Brothers's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Toll Brothers is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Toll Brothers's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Toll Brothers's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 2.5x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Toll Brothers Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

NYSE:TOL Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-04-30 4,986.24 3,649.82 924.45
2019-01-31 4,861.19 3,586.53 801.73
2018-10-31 4,768.91 3,698.18 1,182.20
2018-07-31 4,537.38 3,637.45 522.18
2018-04-30 4,486.60 3,613.14 475.11
2018-01-31 4,464.89 3,529.82 508.28
2017-10-31 4,537.09 3,220.02 712.83
2017-07-31 4,538.62 3,826.40 946.20
2017-04-30 4,454.00 3,692.94 691.27
2017-01-31 4,321.02 3,632.46 373.47
2016-10-31 4,235.20 3,775.45 633.72
2016-07-31 4,179.96 3,876.88 351.85
2016-04-30 4,164.95 3,503.35 423.18
2016-01-31 4,155.97 3,370.09 336.24
2015-10-31 4,228.08 3,790.24 928.99
2015-07-31 4,125.99 3,322.94 404.82
2015-04-30 4,053.94 3,400.67 542.17
2015-01-31 3,962.64 3,367.63 510.92
2014-10-31 3,860.70 3,381.14 598.34
2014-07-31 3,806.82 3,378.62 386.66
2014-04-30 3,703.06 3,458.37 364.82
2014-01-31 3,627.37 3,131.93 1,203.51
2013-10-31 3,339.16 2,503.66 825.48
2013-07-31 3,216.33 2,589.14 1,021.87
2013-04-30 3,172.30 2,477.50 936.00
2013-01-31 3,141.11 2,158.68 793.58
2012-10-31 3,127.87 2,252.94 1,217.89
2012-07-31 2,701.81 1,961.98 877.38
  • Toll Brothers's level of debt (73.2%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (93.3% vs 73.2% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (23.1%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Toll Brothers earns more interest than it pays, coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
X
Financial health checks
We assess Toll Brothers's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Toll Brothers has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Toll Brothers's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
1.22%
Current annual income from Toll Brothers dividends. Estimated to be 1.25% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of Toll Brothers shares you are expected to receive $24 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Toll Brothers's pays a lower dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.44%).
  • Toll Brothers's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.78%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:TOL Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 16 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Consumer Durables Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 20 Stocks 2.2%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2017 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.4%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.8%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:TOL Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2021-10-31 0.44 1.00
2020-10-31 0.46 8.00
2019-10-31 0.44 8.00
NYSE:TOL Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-06-18 0.440 1.200
2019-03-12 0.440 1.185
2018-12-12 0.440 1.254
2018-09-25 0.440 1.368
2018-06-19 0.440 1.210
2018-03-13 0.440 1.049
2017-12-13 0.320 0.673
2017-09-29 0.320 0.704
2017-06-20 0.320 0.814
2017-02-21 0.320 0.878

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Whilst dividend payments have been stable, Toll Brothers has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.
  • Dividend payments have increased, but Toll Brothers only paid a dividend in the past 2 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Toll Brothers's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are thoroughly covered by earnings (11.4x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be thoroughly covered by earnings (9.6x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Toll Brothers's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Toll Brothers afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Toll Brothers has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Toll Brothers's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Doug Yearley
COMPENSATION $9,965,247
AGE 59
TENURE AS CEO 9.1 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Douglas C. Yearley, also known as Doug, Jr., joined Toll Brothers Inc. in 1990 as an Assistant to the Chief Executive Officer with responsibility for land acquisitions. Mr. Yearley has been Chief Executive Officer and Director of Toll Brothers Inc. since June 16, 2010 and serves as its Chairman of the Board since November 1, 2018. He has been an Officer since 1994, holding the position of Vice President at Toll Brothers Inc., from January 1994 until January 2002, Senior Vice President from January 2002 until November 2005, and Regional President from November 2005 until November 2009. In November 2009, he was promoted to Executive Vice President of Toll Brothers Inc until June 2010, when he was promoted to Chief Executive Officer. He serves as Director of Marathon Oil Company, Chairman of International Copper Association. Mr. Yearley was elected a Director in June 2010. He served as Director of J.P. Morgan & Co., Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Freeport Minerals Corp., Chairman of National Mining Association and Vice Chairman of American Mining Congress. He is Co-Chair of the Pennsylvania Chapter of American Cancer Society's “Chief Executive Officer's Against Cancer” and is actively involved in the Yearley Family Foundation, which supports many charities assisting underprivileged children through education. He received a Bachelor of Science degree from Cornell University in Applied Economics and Business Management and a Juris Doctor degree from Rutgers Law School.

CEO Compensation
  • Doug's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Doug's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Toll Brothers management team in years:

7.7
Average Tenure
57
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Toll Brothers management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Doug Yearley

TITLE
Chairman & CEO
COMPENSATION
$10M
AGE
59
TENURE
9.1 yrs

Rick Hartman

TITLE
President & COO
COMPENSATION
$4M
AGE
62
TENURE
6.5 yrs

Bob Toll

TITLE
Chairman Emeritus & Advisor
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
78
TENURE
0.7 yrs

Marty Connor

TITLE
Senior VP & CFO
COMPENSATION
$4M
AGE
55
TENURE
8.8 yrs

Michael Grubb

TITLE
Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer
AGE
55
TENURE
1.5 yrs

John Critikos

TITLE
Chief Information Officer & Senior VP

Fred Cooper

TITLE
Senior VP of Finance

John McDonald

TITLE
Chief Compliance Officer
AGE
55
TENURE
9 yrs

Mccarron Sterling

TITLE
Chief Marketing Officer

Joy Roman

TITLE
Chief Human Resources Officer & Senior VP
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Toll Brothers board of directors in years:

9.1
Average Tenure
77
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Toll Brothers board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Bob Toll

TITLE
Chairman Emeritus & Advisor
COMPENSATION
$5M
AGE
78
TENURE
0.7 yrs

Ed Boehne

TITLE
Lead Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$270K
AGE
78
TENURE
8.3 yrs

Doug Yearley

TITLE
Chairman & CEO
COMPENSATION
$10M
AGE
59
TENURE
0.7 yrs

Carl Marbach

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$270K
AGE
77
TENURE
27.6 yrs

Paul Shapiro

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$260K
AGE
77
TENURE
25.6 yrs

Richard Braemer

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$225K
AGE
77
TENURE
32.8 yrs

Stephen Novick

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$250K
AGE
78
TENURE
16.5 yrs

Christine Garvey

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$240K
AGE
73
TENURE
9.8 yrs

Jac McLean

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$230K
AGE
49
TENURE
3.3 yrs

Wendell Pritchett

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$47K
AGE
54
TENURE
1.3 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • Toll Brothers individual insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
04. Jun 19 Sell Carl Marbach Individual 31. May 19 31. May 19 -3,000 $35.14 $-105,414
10. Jan 19 Sell Carl Marbach Individual 09. Jan 19 09. Jan 19 -3,000 $34.96 $-104,878
17. Dec 18 Sell Paul Shapiro Individual 14. Dec 18 14. Dec 18 -5,539 $32.19 $-178,255
02. Nov 18 Buy Christine Garvey Individual 26. Oct 18 26. Oct 18 9 $29.87 $269
X
Management checks
We assess Toll Brothers's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Toll Brothers has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Why Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Could Be Worth Watching

What does the future of Toll Brothers look like? … NYSE:TOL Past and Future Earnings, July 17th 2019 Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. … However, with a negative profit growth of -14% expected over the next couple of years, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for Toll Brothers.

Simply Wall St -

Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL)'s Could Be A Buy For Its Upcoming Dividend

Toll Brothers's next dividend payment will be US$0.11 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$0.44 to shareholders. … Check out our latest analysis for Toll Brothers Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. … Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising.

Simply Wall St -

With A Return On Equity Of 15%, Has Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) Management Done Well?

The formula for return on equity is: Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity Or for Toll Brothers: 15% = US$746m ÷ US$5.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to April 2019.) Most readers would understand what net profit is, but it’s worth explaining the concept of shareholders’ equity. … Does Toll Brothers Have A Good Return On Equity? … Toll Brothers's Debt And Its 15% ROE While Toll Brothers does have some debt, with debt to equity of just 0.73, we wouldn't say debt is excessive.

Simply Wall St -

Is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) CEO Paid At A Competitive Rate?

First, this article will compare CEO compensation with compensation at similar sized companies. … See our latest analysis for Toll Brothers How Does Doug Yearley's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies? … Boasting a total shareholder return of 40% over three years, Toll Brothers, Inc.

Simply Wall St -

With 28% Earnings Growth, Did Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Outperform The Industry?

View our latest analysis for Toll Brothers Were TOL's earnings stronger than its past performances and the industry? … Let's take a look at if it is solely due to an industry uplift, or if Toll Brothers has seen some company-specific growth. … I suggest you continue to research Toll Brothers to get a more holistic view of the stock by looking at: Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for TOL’s future growth?

Simply Wall St -

Why Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Could Be Your Next Investment

By this I mean, I look at stocks holistically, from their financial health to their future outlook. … NYSE:TOL Income Statement, May 21st 2019 Next Steps: For Toll Brothers, I've compiled three relevant factors you should look at: Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for TOL’s future growth? … Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for TOL’s outlook.

Simply Wall St -

Does Toll Brothers's (NYSE:TOL) Share Price Gain of 44% Match Its Business Performance?

(NYSE:TOL) share price is up 44% in the last three years, slightly above the market return. … Toll Brothers was able to grow its EPS at 34% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. … As it happens, Toll Brothers's TSR for the last 3 years was 47%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier.

Simply Wall St -

Shareholders Are Loving Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) 1.1% Yield

Yet sometimes, investors buy a popular dividend stock because of its yield, and then lose money if the company's dividend doesn't live up to expectations. … Some readers mightn't know much about Toll Brothers's 1.1% dividend, as it has only been paying distributions for the last two years. … When buying stocks for their dividends, you should always run through the checks below, to see if the dividend looks sustainable.

Simply Wall St -

What does Toll Brothers, Inc.'s (NYSE:TOL) Balance Sheet Tell Us About Its Future?

Small-caps and large-caps are wildly popular among investors, however, mid-cap stocks, such as Toll Brothers, Inc. … Despite this, the two other categories have lagged behind the risk-adjusted returns of commonly ignored mid-cap stocks. … Let’s take a look at TOL’s debt concentration and assess their financial liquidity to get an idea of their ability to fund strategic acquisitions and grow through cyclical pressures.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Adding Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) To Your Watchlist Today?

So if you're like me, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL). … How Quickly Is Toll Brothers Increasing Earnings Per Share. … Careful consideration of revenue growth and earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margins can help inform a view on the sustainability of the recent profit growth.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Traditional Home Building and City Living. It also designs, builds, markets, and sells homes in urban infill markets through Toll Brothers City Living. In addition, the company develops, owns, and operates golf courses and country clubs; develops and sells land; and develops, operates, and rents apartments, as well as provides homeowners with home automation and technology options. Further, it owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. Toll Brothers, Inc. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania.

Details
Name: Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1967
$5,193,707,000
143,870,000
Website: http://www.tollbrothers.com
Address: Toll Brothers, Inc.
250 Gibraltar Road,
Horsham,
Pennsylvania, 19044,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE TOL Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 08. Jul 1986
DB TLK Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 08. Jul 1986
LSE 0LFS Common Stock London Stock Exchange GB USD 08. Jul 1986
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
4,900
Toll Brothers employees.
Industry
Homebuilding
Consumer Durables
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/07/22 02:04
End of day share price update: 2019/07/19 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/07/17
Last earnings filing: 2019/06/06
Last earnings reported: 2019/04/30
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/10/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.