NYSE:TOL

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States.

Snowflake

Fundamentals

Good value with adequate balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Toll Brothers's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events


Market Performance


7 Day Return

3.4%

TOL

2.8%

US Consumer Durables

1.8%

US Market


1 Year Return

29.7%

TOL

42.6%

US Consumer Durables

7.3%

US Market

Return vs Industry: TOL underperformed the US Consumer Durables industry which returned 42.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TOL exceeded the US Market which returned 7.3% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

TOLIndustryMarket
7 Day3.4%2.8%1.8%
30 Day-0.2%3.3%-0.7%
90 Day12.5%7.9%0.06%
1 Year31.3%29.7%44.5%42.6%9.7%7.3%
3 Year45.5%41.4%52.3%47.6%46.3%36.9%
5 Year28.9%25.2%41.7%32.8%64.5%46.5%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Toll Brothers's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Toll Brothers undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

32.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Undervalued: TOL ($40.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($59.78)

Significantly Undervalued: TOL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TOL is good value based on its PE Ratio (8.5x) compared to the Consumer Durables industry average (13.6x).

PE vs Market: TOL is good value based on its PE Ratio (8.5x) compared to the US market (17.7x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

Low PEG Ratio: TOL is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (6.7x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TOL is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (1.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Toll Brothers forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 16 analysts?

1.3%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TOL's forecast earnings growth (1.3% per year) is below the savings rate (2.7%).

Earnings vs Market: TOL's earnings (1.3% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TOL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TOL's revenue (1.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (7.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TOL's revenue (1.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

High Future ROE: TOL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.2%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Toll Brothers performed over the past 5 years?

18.7%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TOL's earnings have grown by 18.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TOL's earnings growth over the past year (11.1%) is below its 5-year average (18.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TOL earnings growth over the past year (11.1%) underperformed the Consumer Durables industry 13.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: TOL's Return on Equity (14%) is considered low.


Return on Assets

ROA vs Industry: TOL's Return on Assets is below or equal to the Consumer Durables industry average last year.


Return on Capital Employed

ROCE Improving: TOL has significantly improved its Return on Capital Employed over the past 3 years.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Toll Brothers's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TOL's short term assets ($9.4B) exceeds its short term liabilities ($1.4B)

Long Term Liabilities: TOL's short term assets (9.4B) exceeds its long term liabilities (4.0B)


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TOL's debt to equity ratio (75.3%) is considered high

Reducing Debt: TOL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 88.7% to 75.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: TOL's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (18.6%).

Interest Coverage: TOL earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TOL has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TOL's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 2.497660x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Toll Brothers's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.08%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company1.1%marketbottom25%1.5%markettop25%3.7%industryaverage1.9%forecastin3Years1.1%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry


Stability and Growth of Payments

Notable Dividend: TOL's dividend (1.08%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.45%).

High Dividend: TOL's dividend (1.08%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (3.72%).

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, TOL has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TOL's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 3 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its low payout ratio (9.2%), TOL's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if a dividend will be paid in 3 years and that it will be covered by earnings.


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of Toll Brothers's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

7.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Doug Yearley (59yo)

9.3yrs

Tenure

US$9,965,247

Compensation

Mr. Douglas C. Yearley, Jr., also known as Doug, joined Toll Brothers Inc. in 1990 as an Assistant to the Chief Executive Officer with responsibility for land acquisitions. Mr. Yearley has been Chief Exec ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs. Market: Doug's total compensation ($USD9.97M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.79M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Doug's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

7.9yrs

Average Tenure

57yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: TOL's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.9 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

9.3yrs

Average Tenure

77yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: TOL's board of directors are considered experienced (9.3 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: TOL insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

SellUS$145,89319 Sep 19
John McDonald
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Legal Officer
Chief Compliance Officer
Shares3,578
Max PriceUS$40.78
SellUS$79,96819 Sep 19
John McDonald
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Legal Officer
Chief Compliance Officer
Shares1,964
Max PriceUS$40.72
SellUS$1,026,38517 Sep 19
Douglas Yearley
EntityIndividual
Role
Chief Executive Officer
Chairman & CEO
Shares25,000
Max PriceUS$41.06
SellUS$1,623,88117 Sep 19
Richard Hartman
EntityIndividual
Role
President
President & COO
Shares40,119
Max PriceUS$40.48
SellUS$105,41404 Jun 19
Carl Marbach
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares3,000
Max PriceUS$35.14
SellUS$104,87810 Jan 19
Carl Marbach
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares3,000
Max PriceUS$34.96
SellUS$178,25517 Dec 18
Paul Shapiro
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares5,539
Max PriceUS$32.19
BuyUS$26902 Nov 18
Christine Garvey
EntityIndividual
Role
Member of the Board of Directors
Independent Director
Shares9
Max PriceUS$29.87

Ownership Breakdown


Management Team

  • Bob Toll (78yo)

    Chairman Emeritus & Advisor

    • Tenure: 0.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$4.79m
  • Rick Hartman (62yo)

    President & COO

    • Tenure: 6.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.97m
  • Doug Yearley (59yo)

    Chairman & CEO

    • Tenure: 9.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$9.97m
  • Marty Connor (55yo)

    Senior VP & CFO

    • Tenure: 9.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$3.61m
  • Mccarron Sterling

    Chief Marketing Officer

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • John McDonald (55yo)

    Chief Compliance Officer

    • Tenure: 9.3yrs
  • Fred Cooper

    Senior VP of Finance

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Michael Grubb (55yo)

    Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer

    • Tenure: 1.8yrs
  • John Critikos

    Chief Information Officer & Senior VP

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Joy Roman

    Chief Human Resources Officer & Senior VP

    • Tenure: 0yrs

Board Members

  • Paul Shapiro (77yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 25.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$259.98k
  • Christine Garvey (73yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 10.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$239.98k
  • Stephen Novick (78yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 16.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$249.98k
  • Bob Toll (78yo)

    Chairman Emeritus & Advisor

    • Tenure: 0.9yrs
    • Compensation: US$4.79m
  • Ed Boehne (78yo)

    Lead Independent Director

    • Tenure: 8.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$269.98k
  • Richard Braemer (77yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 33.1yrs
    • Compensation: US$224.98k
  • Carl Marbach (77yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 27.8yrs
    • Compensation: US$269.98k
  • Doug Yearley (59yo)

    Chairman & CEO

    • Tenure: 9.3yrs
    • Compensation: US$9.97m
  • Wendell Pritchett (54yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 1.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$46.70k
  • Jac McLean (49yo)

    Independent Director

    • Tenure: 3.6yrs
    • Compensation: US$229.98k

Company Information

Toll Brothers, Inc.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Toll Brothers, Inc.
  • Ticker: TOL
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Founded: 1967
  • Industry: Homebuilding
  • Sector: Consumer Durables
  • Market Cap: US$5.701b
  • Shares outstanding: 140.43m
  • Website: https://www.tollbrothers.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Toll Brothers, Inc.
  • 250 Gibraltar Road
  • Horsham
  • Pennsylvania
  • 19044
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TOLNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockUSUSDJul 1986
TLKDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon StockDEEURJul 1986
0LFSLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon StockGBUSDJul 1986

Biography

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. The compan ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/10/17 23:43
End of Day Share Price2019/10/17 00:00
Earnings2019/07/31
Annual Earnings2018/10/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.