Movado Group, Inc. (NYSE:MOV) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 11% in the last quarter. On the bright side the share price is up over the last half decade. However we are not very impressed because the share price is only up 48%, less than the market return of 78%.
While the stock has fallen 7.1% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the last half decade, Movado Group became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so we would expect to see an increasing share price.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Movado Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Movado Group the TSR over the last 5 years was 65%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Movado Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 17% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 11% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Movado Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Movado Group (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
Of course Movado Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
What are the risks and opportunities for Movado Group?
Trading at 66.6% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 9.49% per year
No risks detected for MOV from our risks checks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.