Does Stifel’s Upgrade on Hoka’s Strength Shift the Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Growth Narrative?

• Earlier this month, Stifel upgraded Deckers Outdoor to Buy from Hold, highlighting robust growth in the Hoka brand and a constructive outlook for UGG, especially in international markets.
• Despite management’s optimistic growth outlook and strong brand performance, the company anticipates ongoing tariff pressures impacting the US market through fiscal year 2027.
• We'll evaluate how Stifel's increased confidence, especially regarding Hoka's international strength, may shift the investment narrative for Deckers Outdoor.

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Deckers Outdoor Investment Narrative Recap

To own shares in Deckers Outdoor, you need to believe in the ongoing international momentum of its key brands, Hoka and UGG, and trust the company's ability to weather sector headwinds. Stifel’s recent upgrade reflects increased optimism about Hoka’s strength abroad, but this does not materially change the biggest near-term risk: the impact of tariffs and price sensitivity in the US, nor does it alter the main short-term catalyst, which is the sustained growth of Hoka internationally.

Among recent announcements, Deckers’ October share buyback update stands out. The company repurchased nearly 2.9 million shares worth US$317 million, a signal of management's confidence and a move that could offer some support to per-share results. For investors, this is aligned with the view that international strength and margin management remain key to the short-term story.

Yet, with US tariffs expected to pressure profit margins through 2027, investors must also bear in mind the risk that...

Read the full narrative on Deckers Outdoor (it's free!)

Deckers Outdoor's outlook anticipates $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This forecast is based on an annual revenue growth rate of 8.5% and represents an increase in earnings of about $110 million from the current $989.7 million.

Uncover how Deckers Outdoor's forecasts yield a $111.97 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community produced 20 fair value estimates for Deckers, ranging from US$75.82 to US$158 per share. While many see significant upside, tariff-related risks and fluctuating brand performance remain key factors shaping future outcomes.

Explore 20 other fair value estimates on Deckers Outdoor - why the stock might be worth 13% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Deckers Outdoor Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Deckers Outdoor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Deckers Outdoor research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Deckers Outdoor's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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