There May Be Reason For Hope In Columbia Sportswear's (NASDAQ:COLM) Disappointing Earnings

By
Simply Wall St
Published
March 03, 2021
NasdaqGS:COLM
Source: Shutterstock

Soft earnings didn't appear to concern Columbia Sportswear Company's (NASDAQ:COLM) shareholders over the last week. Our analysis suggests that while the profits are soft, the foundations of the business are strong.

Check out our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear

earnings-and-revenue-history
NasdaqGS:COLM Earnings and Revenue History March 4th 2021

Zooming In On Columbia Sportswear's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to December 2020, Columbia Sportswear recorded an accrual ratio of -0.13. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$247m, well over the US$108.0m it reported in profit. Columbia Sportswear's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Columbia Sportswear's profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$46m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. If Columbia Sportswear doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.

Our Take On Columbia Sportswear's Profit Performance

Considering both Columbia Sportswear's accrual ratio and its unusual items, we think its statutory earnings are unlikely to exaggerate the company's underlying earnings power. Looking at all these factors, we'd say that Columbia Sportswear's underlying earnings power is at least as good as the statutory numbers would make it seem. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Columbia Sportswear has 3 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore them.

Our examination of Columbia Sportswear has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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Simply Wall St is focused on providing unbiased, high-quality research coverage on every listed company in the world. Our research team consists of data scientists and multiple equity analysts with over two decades worth of financial markets experience between them.