Columbia Sportswear (COLM): Evaluating Valuation After Launch of Star Wars-Themed Endor Collection

Columbia Sportswear (COLM) just dropped its Star Wars inspired Endor Collection, a 20 piece collaboration that leans on fan nostalgia and premium pricing, giving investors a fresh lens on the brand.

See our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear.

For investors, this launch lands at an interesting moment, with the latest share price at $55.11 and a 30 day share price return of 5.27% offering a modest bounce against a much weaker year to date share price performance and double digit negative one year total shareholder return. This suggests sentiment is stabilising but not yet fully turning.

If you like the mix of brand storytelling and durable demand, it could be a good time to see what else is out there and explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

Yet with shares still down sharply over one and three years despite steady, if unspectacular, growth, the real question is whether Columbia is quietly undervalued or if the market is already pricing in any rebound from here.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 4.3% Undervalued

With Columbia Sportswear closing at $55.11 against a narrative fair value of $57.57, the story leans toward mild upside with measured expectations.

Analysts are assuming Columbia Sportswear's revenue will grow by 2.3% annually over the next 3 years.

Analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 6.6% today to 5.0% in 3 years time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how slow revenue growth can still support a higher valuation? The narrative focuses on shrinking margins, aggressive buybacks and a richer future earnings multiple. Want to see the full playbook behind that fair value call?

Result: Fair Value of $57.57 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, accelerating international growth and successful digital transformation could shore up demand faster than expected and challenge the cautious revenue and margin assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Columbia Sportswear narrative.

Another View: Ratio Based Valuation Flags Downside Risk

Our ratio based view paints a different picture. Columbia trades on a price to earnings ratio of 15.9x, above its fair ratio of 13.5x and even slightly richer than peer average at 15.1x. It is still cheaper than the US Luxury sector at 21x, which raises the risk that any disappointment could hit the share price harder than bulls expect.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Columbia Sportswear for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 906 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Columbia Sportswear Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Columbia Sportswear research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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