ATER Stock Overview
Aterian, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a technology-enabled consumer products company in North America and internationally.
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$1.89|
|52 Week High||US$13.97|
|52 Week Low||US$1.84|
|1 Month Change||-24.10%|
|3 Month Change||-27.03%|
|1 Year Change||-85.42%|
|3 Year Change||-75.42%|
|5 Year Change||n/a|
|Change since IPO||-81.10%|
Recent News & Updates
Aterian's Silver Lining
ATER is facing supply chain disruptions that have negatively affected its operations. The company holds a surplus of inventory and is looking to accelerate sales to restock at lower margins. Container ship prices are decreasing and the global supply chain appears to be stabilizing. Q3 and Q4 are typically ATER's strongest quarters due to seasonal demand for its products. ATER presents strong upside heading into 2023 as it recovers from supply chain disruptions. Digital retail platforms that prospered during the pandemic have become increasingly impacted by shifts in consumer's discretionary spending as inflationary concerns move to the forefront. Despite missing Wall Street's GAAP EPS and revenue expectations, Aterian (ATER) offers a promising long-term outlook based on the improving landscape for supply chain logistics and the company's new strategy for building on preexisting products. I believe long-term investors have an opportunity to take advantage of the stock's lower value, resulting from inventory and demand issues, to benefit from what I expect will be a healthy recovery in 2023. Overview At the core of my investment thesis is the transition to e-commerce, which has been occurring at break-neck speeds. The COVID-19 pandemic only hastened its adoption and, during Q1 2020 alone, the growth of e-commerce in the U.S. achieved the same penetration as it had over the last 10 years. This led 75% of consumers to shift away from familiar brands and experiment with new ones - opening the door to new and emerging companies. McKinsey & Company Between 2021 and 2025, the e-commerce industry is expected to grow by almost $11 trillion - despite temporary shifts back to brick-and-mortar retailers following e-commerce's COVID-bump. The share of e-commerce across total U.S. retail sales was 14.3% as of Q2 2022, and I believe that this percentage will continue to increase with the shift toward e-commerce. However, with wider adoption comes more competition. Amazon (AMZN) has encouraged the participation of third-party sellers on its site and as of Q2 they represent 57% of all units sold - a new high for the platform. Ease of access outside of the platform has resulted in a saturated commerce space, where new privacy laws limit the effectiveness of ad campaigns and the costs associated with customer acquisition continue to increase. Given this increasingly competitive landscape, a technology-enabled consumer product platform like ATER has the potential to outperform competitors using data science to inform almost every aspect of its operations. Instead of focusing on the value of brand identity, ATER believes that a product portfolio developed from data and validated by social proof will create better performing products. This is achieved using its cloud-based platform - AIMEE - which leverages data to identify unmet demand and streamline product management. Designed for the renaissance of e-commerce across Amazon, Shopify (SHOP), and Walmart (WMT), this technology has been instrumental to ATER's progress so far. Achieving growth primarily through mergers and acquisitions, ATER has been able to expand rapidly and now includes 14 consumer brands as well as a portfolio of over 2,000 products. However, this growth has come at the expense of its short-term profitability. While ATER's business model benefited from COVID-era demand, it must prove adaptable to the post-pandemic landscape as well. Cooling Consumer Demand As a consumer products platform, Aterian is particularly sensitive to the effects of inflation on consumers' discretionary spending. Amazon - one of Aterian's sales channels - has reported a 4% dip YoY in its online sales, indicating that consumers are cutting back as their buying power is reduced. This has put Aterian in a situation similar to major retailer Walmart, which had overestimated consumer demand leading to excess inventory in Q2. While Walmart was forced to lower its Q2 guidance as a result, Aterian has chosen to drop its full-year guidance and is projecting between $52 and $60 million in net revenue for Q3 - a drop of 23.6% to 11.8% compared to the same quarter last year. Altogether, the performance of these retailers shows lagging demand across the board. But there are already signs of recovery. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index - a metric for reading consumer confidence levels - surpassed expectations, reporting 55.1 in its preliminary reading for August following July's improvement from a record low. CEO Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan (JPM) also shared in the company's Q2 report that combined debit and credit card spending was up 15%. In the report, Dimon pointed out that spending on travel and dining remains robust as well - a sign that consumers are choosing to spend more on services. Silver Lining While lagging demand for goods appears to paint a gloomy picture for ATER, looking back at its Q1 earnings call management pointed to a number of factors which form a different outlook. At the time, ATER's CEO Yaniv Sarig noted fears of a global recession but also pointed out that as demand cooled, there would be an improvement in supply chain and logistics costs. ATER's management took this as a positive, saying: [...] for our business really getting back to growth and profitability is predicated on returning to normalized shipping costs. And unfortunately, the only way to get there is to reduce global consumer demand for products. We are now seeing this situation play out as ATER noted in its Q2 earnings call a 31% YOY drop in the cost of shipping from Shanghai to L.A. While prices still have not stabilized at their pre-pandemic levels, relief is in sight. Higher demand for shipping containers during the pandemic led manufacturers to increase production, but average container prices and leasing rates have been declining globally since September-October 2021. As the containers become ready for use, oversupply will continue pushing costs down. This has already contributed to a 20% decline in freight rates since the beginning of the year. While macroeconomic factors such as inflation could affect the situation, it appears as if the costs of shipping containers are on track to continue declining this year. That puts ATER in a good position for 2023. Because ATER's current financial distress is largely due to substantial increases in supply chain costs for shipping containers, continued improvements will put the company back on track for growth. These improvements could come sooner than expected since the Baltic Dry Index - an index of average prices paid for the transport of dry bulk materials - has dropped 58% since May 23. Tradingview While this index is specific to bulk commodities used for manufacturing, it also reflects the transportation costs of containers within the international trade framework. The index has been stabilizing after reaching its peak in October 2021. Now, looking at the weekly time frame and accounting for seasonal shifts in demand, it appears that the index is nearing pre-pandemic levels. However, there will be a delay before these changes are reflected in ATER's balance sheet. In order for ATER's margins to recover in 2023, it must sell its current inventory before restocking at a lower cost basis. Otherwise, the company's margins will not recover in 2023. Inventory As is, ATER is encumbered with $76.1 million in inventory on hand, which has negatively impacted its working capital. While this is a short-term concern, I believe ATER is already taking the steps necessary to resolve its inventory issues by accelerating the sale of goods that were previously shipped to its warehouse. Amazon's Prime Day offered the perfect opportunity for this and it appears that ATER has already reduced its inventory by selling some of its products at a less attractive margin. Despite this, July's Amazon event was ATER's best Prime Day yet, which is indicative of its products' strong performance. I believe the company will not have a difficult time offloading its inventory during the remainder of 2022 since Amazon is planning a second Prime Day in the fall in addition to Cyber Monday, Black Friday, and the holiday shopping season. Meanwhile, the company is taking the opportunity to revise its product portfolio, which I believe will put it in a better position for pursuing growth in 2023. Product Portfolio ATER is in a stronger position than others thanks to its diversified portfolio of evergreen products. Currently, ATER has offerings in a variety of categories including home and kitchen appliances, heating, cooling, and air quality appliances, beauty products, essential oils, and kitchenware. While these items may not be essential goods, consumer spending is still strong enough that demand for these products will not vanish. In fact, some of ATER's top products are gaining market share despite cooling demand. This could be part of the reason why ATER is planning to focus on certain categories by acquiring brands that will complement the inroads already made. I believe this is the right decision not only from a financial perspective, but also based on ATER's stronger performance in certain categories. Tailoring its approach to capitalize on verticals where it has a strong position is a smart business decision, given that ATER is routinely confronted with higher upfront investments when entering a completely new category. It appears as if ATER is looking to reduce risk by anchoring its new products to its successful ones. This is not to say that ATER has produced duds. Using AIMEE, the company is clearly targeting some of the top-selling categories on Amazon - one of which is the home and kitchen category. ATER's acquisition of Mueller positioned it to capitalize on this category, and based on the results of my Amazon search I see that at least 16 Mueller products are "Amazon Best Sellers" and many others are rated as "Amazon's Choice." These are valuable metrics to consider because an Amazon's Choice badge can increase traffic and conversions for a product. According to a study of 37,000 Amazon products, this badge can increase its click through rate by an average 17% and boost conversions by an average 25%. Some claim that an Amazon's Choice badge can increase sales by as much as 200%. Similarly, a Best Sellers badge can increase traffic for a product by an impressive 45% and conversions by 3%. However, others have pointed out that these badges can be manipulated by placing products in low-volume categories or through other gray area tactics. While Culper Research criticized the company for supposedly using such tactics to boost their reviews and gain badges, there is no proof that that is the case. But it is worth noting that these badges might not translate to tremendous success for the products. For example, despite the performance of Mueller and ATER's other brands on Amazon, ATER's summary of 2021 revenue shows that its heating, cooling, and air quality products led the way with $73 million in revenue. Although these products see strong seasonal demand, considering the growing frequency of wildfires and hotter temperatures, this category could continue to report significant growth YoY. While the company reported $58.3 million in revenue for Q2, I expect it to report higher sales in Q3 and Q4 due to the upcoming shopping seasons. Typically, there is an uptick in ATER's reported revenue during Q2 and Q3. In 2021, that jump was from $48.1 million in Q1 to $68.1 million in Q2 - a 41.5% increase. In 2020 the increase from Q1 to Q2 was 133%. While some of this higher demand was due to the pandemic, ATER benefits from the summer season thanks to its cooling and air quality appliances. This sales growth typically carries through to Q4 when the holiday season drives demand for small kitchen appliances. With this in mind, it appears that ATER is on track to report revenue growth in the coming quarters. New Product Strategy So far ATER has not released the finer details of its new strategy, but it appears to be centered around offering new sizes, pairings, and variations on existing products using AIMEE to identify the best opportunities. For Mueller I imagine this strategy could involve pairing different kitchen gadgets together, or creating a package for kitchen tools, etc. For hOmelabs, this could result in different sizes or variations of beverage coolers and freezers. Annual Report Going forward, I believe ATER will focus on strengthening its hold in the best performing categories such as heating, cooling, and air quality products as well as kitchen appliances. ATER is already preparing to launch a cool branded air purifier in partnership with a publisher brand and is considering additional product launches depending on supply chain easement. I believe this decision shows management's confidence in its new strategy as it accelerates sales of its old inventory. Valuation Currently, ATER has a market cap of $184.8 million, but according to its latest quarterly report its total assets amount to $313 million. Of this, $124 million are current assets such as its inventory, cash, and accounts receivable. The company's goodwill is valued at $119.9 million and its other intangibles amount to $64.9 million. Over the last four quarters ATER has had sales of about $231.4 million, and its market cap is currently $184.8 million - giving it a P/S ratio of .79. However, other companies in the household appliances sector - such as Weber (WEBR) - have P/S ratios much higher than ATER's. With a market cap of $2.54 billion, WEBR has a P/S ratio of 1.33. WEBR's competitor Traeger (COOK) has a much lower P/S ratio of .49, given its $373 million market cap. Despite being in the same sector, I believe these companies do not offer a very fair comparison for ATER given that they specialize in outdoor cooking equipment - a category that ATER does not compete in. However, they do provide some context for ATER's performance. Another company in this sector, Cricut (CRCT), specializes in making cutting machines and crafting tools for hobbyists and small businesses. The company also sells its products through an Amazon store, but has a P/S ratio of 1.3 given its $1.4 billion market cap. Two companies that ATER might compete with in terms of products are Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) and Hamilton Beach Brands Holding (HBB). The former is a global consumer products company operating in the health and wellness, home and outdoor, and beauty segments. HELE owns some well-known brands such as Hydro Flask, Vicks, OXO, and others, with products sold on Amazon. Despite its $3.2 billion market cap, HELE has had $2.19 billion in sales over the last four quarters, giving it a P/S ratio of 1.47. Meanwhile HBB, which produces a wide range of branded small electric household and specialty housewares appliances, boasts a P/S ratio of .26 given its $171.5 million market cap and $648 million in sales. These companies are profitable whereas ATER is not. Therefore, ATER's relatively low P/S ratio could indicate that it has a low valuation in comparison to many of these profitable companies. In light of this, I believe ATER has the potential for greater growth once these supply chain issues stabilize. However, it's also worth noting that - as far as my research has shown - there are no public companies pursuing the FBA (fulfillment by Amazon) sellers market on U.S. exchanges. This is a niche that has grown notably in just a few years, and there are many private Amazon aggregator companies that have raised more than $500 million in capital. A few, like Thrasio, have raised over a billion dollars. Packable, the parent company of Pharmapack - a no. 1 seller on Amazon - planned to go public through a SPAC merger with Highland Transcend Partners I Corp., but has since terminated that agreement. Anker - a Chinese electronics company that began as a third-party seller on Amazon in 2011 - did become a publicly listed company on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Estimating The Fair Value Of Aterian, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATER)
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Aterian, Inc. ( NASDAQ:ATER ) by estimating the...
Aterian GAAP EPS of -$0.26 misses by $0.08, revenue of $58.27M misses by $1.34M
Aterian press release (NASDAQ:ATER): Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.26 misses by $0.08. Revenue of $58.27M (-14.5% Y/Y) misses by $1.34M. Shares -8.72%.
|ATER||US Consumer Durables||US Market|
Return vs Industry: ATER underperformed the US Consumer Durables industry which returned -35.1% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ATER underperformed the US Market which returned -23.1% over the past year.
|ATER Average Weekly Movement||12.5%|
|Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement||6.3%|
|Market Average Movement||6.9%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.9%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.8%|
Stable Share Price: ATER is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ATER's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.
About the Company
Aterian, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a technology-enabled consumer products company in North America and internationally. The company provides Artificial Intelligence Marketplace e-Commerce Engine, a software technology platform, which uses machine learning, natural language processing, and data analytics to design, develop, market, and sell products. Its platform offers home and kitchen appliances; kitchenware; heating, cooling, and health and beauty products; and air quality appliances, such as dehumidifiers, humidifiers, and air conditioners under the hOmeLabs, Vremi, Squatty Potty, Xtava, RIF6, Aussie Health, Holonix, Truweo, Mueller, Pursteam, Pohl and Schmitt, Healing Solutions, Photo Paper Direct, and Spiralizer brands.
Aterian Fundamentals Summary
|ATER fundamental statistics|
Is ATER overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|ATER income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$111.95m|
Last Reported Earnings
Jun 30, 2022
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||-2.71|
|Net Profit Margin||-76.17%|
How did ATER perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is ATER undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score 3/6
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ATER?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
|What is ATER's n/a Ratio?|
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does ATER's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
|ATER PS Ratio vs Peers|
|Company||PS||Estimated Growth||Market Cap|
HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding
VIOT Viomi Technology
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ATER is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does ATER's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Durables Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ATER is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (0.5x)
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is ATER's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
|Current PS Ratio||0.5x|
|Fair PS Ratio||0.6x|
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ATER is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of ATER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: ATER ($1.89) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.84)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ATER is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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How is Aterian forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?
Future Growth Score1/6
Future Growth Score 1/6
Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ATER is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: ATER is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: ATER is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ATER's revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ATER's revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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How has Aterian performed over the past 5 years?
Past Performance Score0/6
Past Performance Score 0/6
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings vs Industry
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ATER is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: ATER is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ATER is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 52.1% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ATER's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: ATER is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Durables industry (29%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ATER has a negative Return on Equity (-87.75%), as it is currently unprofitable.
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How is Aterian's financial position?
Financial Health Score4/6
Financial Health Score 4/6
Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ATER's short term assets ($128.8M) exceed its short term liabilities ($83.4M).
Long Term Liabilities: ATER's short term assets ($128.8M) exceed its long term liabilities ($412.0K).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ATER's net debt to equity ratio (1.3%) is considered satisfactory.
Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: ATER has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if ATER has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.
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What is Aterian current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Score 0/6
Cash Flow Coverage
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATER's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATER's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's dividend payments have been increasing.
Earnings Payout to Shareholders
Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Cash Payout to Shareholders
Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as ATER has not reported any payouts.
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How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Yaniv Sarig (44 yo)
Mr. Yaniv Sarig serves as Director of Landa Holdings, Inc. He has been Director, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aterian, Inc. (formerly known as Mohawk Group Holdings, Inc.), since September 2018...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Yaniv's total compensation ($USD5.03M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD780.01K).
Compensation vs Earnings: Yaniv's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.
Experienced Management: ATER's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.
Experienced Board: ATER's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: ATER insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
|13 Sep 22||SellUS$25,947||Yaniv Sarig||Individual||10,948||US$2.37|
|13 Sep 22||SellUS$8,968||Michal Chaouat-Fix||Individual||3,784||US$2.37|
|13 Sep 22||SellUS$9,966||Joseph Risico||Individual||4,205||US$2.37|
|13 Sep 22||SellUS$9,966||Arturo Rodriguez||Individual||4,205||US$2.37|
|13 Sep 22||SellUS$9,966||Roi Zahut||Individual||4,205||US$2.37|
|14 Jun 22||SellUS$61,012||Arturo Rodriguez||Individual||23,833||US$2.56|
|14 Jun 22||SellUS$61,012||Joseph Risico||Individual||23,833||US$2.56|
|14 Jun 22||SellUS$133,745||Yaniv Sarig||Individual||52,244||US$2.56|
|14 Jun 22||SellUS$54,909||Michal Chaouat-Fix||Individual||21,449||US$2.56|
|14 Jun 22||SellUS$61,012||Roi Zahut||Individual||23,833||US$2.56|
|23 Mar 22||SellUS$445,735||Yaniv Sarig||Individual||166,127||US$2.68|
|22 Dec 21||SellUS$391,672||Arturo Rodriguez||Individual||94,152||US$4.16|
|22 Dec 21||SellUS$412,626||Michal Chaouat-Fix||Individual||99,189||US$4.16|
|22 Dec 21||SellUS$431,546||Tomer Pascal||Individual||103,737||US$4.16|
|22 Dec 21||SellUS$363,114||Joseph Risico||Individual||87,287||US$4.16|
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 46.3%.
|Ownership||Name||Shares||Current Value||Change %||Portfolio %|
Aterian, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Aterian, Inc.
- Ticker: ATER
- Exchange: NasdaqCM
- Founded: 2014
- Industry: Household Appliances
- Sector: Consumer Durables
- Implied Market Cap: US$122.875m
- Shares outstanding: 65.01m
- Website: https://www.aterian.io
Number of Employees
- Aterian, Inc.
- 37 East 18th Street
- 7th Floor
- New York
- New York
- United States
|Ticker||Exchange||Primary Security||Security Type||Country||Currency||Listed on|
|ATER||NasdaqCM (Nasdaq Capital Market)||Yes||Common Stock||US||USD||Jun 2019|
|ATER *||BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)||Yes||Common Stock||MX||MXN||Jun 2019|
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2022/09/24 00:00|
|End of Day Share Price||2022/09/23 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.