ATER Stock Overview
Aterian, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a technology-enabled consumer products company in North America and internationally.
Price History & Performance
|Historical stock prices|
|Current Share Price||US$4.88|
|52 Week High||US$48.99|
|52 Week Low||US$3.04|
|1 Month Change||-23.63%|
|3 Month Change||-34.05%|
|1 Year Change||-29.17%|
|3 Year Change||n/a|
|5 Year Change||n/a|
|Change since IPO||-51.20%|
Recent News & Updates
Aterian Q3 Results: Outlook Remains Gloomy
Although Q3 2021 results came in above consensus on revenues and operating profit, we believe the overall picture on Aterian has not changed materially, and the outlook remains gloomy. Q3 net revenues reached $68.1 mln (+16% YoY), of which $35.4 mln were supported by organic business and $30.7 mln from recent M&A activity. Aterian made no new product launch in Q3 as the 40 new launches in 2021 were all made in H1. This is understandable given the current challenging market conditions. We believe a share capital injection is in the cards. We expect ATER will be shortly forced to issue new shares at a discount to finance its operations. From June 2020, the company has almost tripled the number of shares from 15.4 mln to the current 50 mln.
Aterian's (NASDAQ:ATER) Stock Dilution is Not Worth The Risk
Although summertime is generally seen as a calmer period of the stock market, those rules do not apply in the high-growth small-cap universe. During the last quarter, Aterian, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: ATER) price went as low as US$3.04 and as high as US$19.10. Yet, short interest remains elevated. This article will look at the latest developments, as well as examine the state of the balance sheet.
Aterian - Debt Covenant Breaches And Additional Capital Needs Likely To Result In Material Dilution
Controversial e-commerce company discloses additional debt covenant breaches resulting in an acceleration of a substantial part of its debt with hedge fund High Trail Investments ("High Trail"). Agreement to repay the debt including a 15% default premium in discounted new shares heavily incentivizes High Trail to short the company's common stock. Company needs to raise additional capital to cover ongoing operating losses and continue its roll-up strategy. With new debt financing likely not available at this time, investors need to prepare for a near-term equity offering including warrant sweeteners. A short position could yield decent results but sky-high borrowing rates are likely to keep even speculative investors sidelined at this point.
Artificial Intelligence Investments Will Likely Push Aterian's Price Up
Aterian, Inc. supplies artificial intelligence, machine learning, and massive quantities of data to global e-commerce brands. Remember that what really matters is not the company’s products, but the company’s ability to sell to consumers exactly what they need. Third-party vendors need to sell in online retail channels such as Amazon.com and Walmart, in which Aterian, Inc. has a lot of expertise. With a WACC of 5.5%, a multiple of 45x, and a terminal free cash flow of $15 million, I obtained an equity valuation close to $550 million. I expect sales growth of 7.5%, which is close to the expected growth of the e-commerce market. Capital expenditures would increase gradually from $0.09 million to $0.5 million.
|ATER||US Consumer Durables||US Market|
Return vs Industry: ATER underperformed the US Consumer Durables industry which returned 28.5% over the past year.
Return vs Market: ATER underperformed the US Market which returned 23.3% over the past year.
|ATER Average Weekly Movement||29.0%|
|Consumer Durables Industry Average Movement||5.5%|
|Market Average Movement||6.0%|
|10% most volatile stocks in US Market||15.0%|
|10% least volatile stocks in US Market||2.3%|
Stable Share Price: ATER is more volatile than 90% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 29% a week.
Volatility Over Time: ATER's weekly volatility has increased from 22% to 29% over the past year.
About the Company
Aterian, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a technology-enabled consumer products company in North America and internationally. It provides Artificial Intelligence Mohawk e-Commerce Engine, a software technology platform, which uses machine learning, natural language processing, and data analytics to design, develop, market, and sell products. The company’s platform provides home and kitchen appliances; kitchenware, heating, cooling, and health and beauty products; and air quality appliances, such as dehumidifiers, humidifiers, and air conditioners under the hOmeLabs, Vremi, Xtava, RIF6, Aussie Health, Holonix, Truweo, Mueller, Pursteam, Pohl and Schmitt, and Spiralizer brands.
Aterian Fundamentals Summary
|ATER fundamental statistics|
Is ATER overvalued?See Fair Value and valuation analysis
Earnings & Revenue
|ATER income statement (TTM)|
|Cost of Revenue||US$113.62m|
Last Reported Earnings
Sep 30, 2021
Next Earnings Date
|Earnings per share (EPS)||-5.41|
|Net Profit Margin||-121.17%|
How did ATER perform over the long term?See historical performance and comparison
Is Aterian undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?
Undervalued compared to fair value
Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below Fair Value: ATER ($5.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($15.39)
Significantly Below Fair Value: ATER is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Price To Earnings Ratio
PE vs Industry: ATER is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Consumer Durables industry average.
PE vs Market: ATER is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.
Price to Earnings Growth Ratio
PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ATER's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.
Price to Book Ratio
PB vs Industry: ATER is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the US Consumer Durables industry average (1.9x).
How is Aterian forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?
Forecasted annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: ATER is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: ATER is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: ATER is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: ATER's revenue (16.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (10.1% per year).
High Growth Revenue: ATER's revenue (16.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: ATER is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
How has Aterian performed over the past 5 years?
Historical annual earnings growth
Earnings and Revenue History
Quality Earnings: ATER is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: ATER is currently unprofitable.
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: ATER is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 62.5% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare ATER's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: ATER is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Durables industry (69.8%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: ATER has a negative Return on Equity (-128.74%), as it is currently unprofitable.
How is Aterian's financial position?
Financial Position Analysis
Short Term Liabilities: ATER's short term assets ($130.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($66.5M).
Long Term Liabilities: ATER's short term assets ($130.9M) exceed its long term liabilities ($42.5M).
Debt to Equity History and Analysis
Debt Level: ATER has more cash than its total debt.
Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.
Cash Runway Analysis
For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.
Stable Cash Runway: ATER has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow.
Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if ATER has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.
What is Aterian current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?
Dividend Yield vs Market
Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATER's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
High Dividend: Unable to evaluate ATER's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.
Stability and Growth of Payments
Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's dividends per share have been stable in the past.
Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if ATER's dividend payments have been increasing.
Current Payout to Shareholders
Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.
Future Payout to Shareholders
Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of ATER's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.
How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?
Average management tenure
Yaniv Sarig (43 yo)
Mr. Yaniv Sarig has been Director, President and Chief Executive Officer of Aterian, Inc. (formerly known as Mohawk Group Holdings, Inc.), since September 2018 and serves as its Chairman of the Board. He i...
CEO Compensation Analysis
Compensation vs Market: Yaniv's total compensation ($USD2.45M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD1.09M).
Compensation vs Earnings: Yaniv's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Experienced Management: ATER's management team is considered experienced (2.8 years average tenure).
Experienced Board: ATER's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.
Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?
Insider Trading Volume
Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 159.5%.
Aterian, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources
- Name: Aterian, Inc.
- Ticker: ATER
- Exchange: NasdaqCM
- Founded: 2014
- Industry: Household Appliances
- Sector: Consumer Durables
- Market Cap: US$246.940m
- Shares outstanding: 50.60m
- Website: https://www.aterian.io
Number of Employees
- Aterian, Inc.
- 37 East 18th Street
- 7th Floor
- New York
- New York
- United States
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
|Data||Last Updated (UTC time)|
|Company Analysis||2021/12/01 00:12|
|End of Day Share Price||2021/11/30 00:00|
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.