The three-year decline in earnings for Wabash National NYSE:WNC) isn't encouraging, but shareholders are still up 43% over that period

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 24, 2022
NYSE:WNC
Source: Shutterstock

Investors can buy low cost index fund if they want to receive the average market return. But if you invest in individual stocks, some are likely to underperform. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Wabash National Corporation (NYSE:WNC) share price is up 33% in the last three years, that falls short of the market return. In the last year the stock has gained 15%.

While the stock has fallen 8.9% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Wabash National

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Wabash National moved from a loss to profitability. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:WNC Earnings Per Share Growth January 24th 2022

We know that Wabash National has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Wabash National the TSR over the last 3 years was 43%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Wabash National shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 18% over one year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 4% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Wabash National (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.

But note: Wabash National may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

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