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Timken

NYSE:TKR
Snowflake Description

Established dividend payer and fair value.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
TKR
NYSE
$4B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Capital Goods
Company description

The Timken Company engineers, manufactures, and markets engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide. The last earnings update was 48 days ago. More info.


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TKR Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
0.2%
NYSE:TKR
-0.7%
US Machinery
0.1%
US Market
1 Year Returns
4.8%
NYSE:TKR
-1.6%
US Machinery
1.2%
US Market
TKR Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Timken (TKR) 0.2% 3.8% 10.5% 4.8% 47.9% -28.1%
US Machinery -0.7% 1.7% -1.2% -1.6% 40.5% 20.6%
US Market 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 36.7% 37.9%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • TKR outperformed the Machinery industry which returned -1.6% over the past year.
  • TKR outperformed the Market in United States of America which returned 1.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
TKR
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

TKR Value

 Is Timken undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Timken to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Timken.

NYSE:TKR Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 9 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 10.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 2.7%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:TKR
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 2.7%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6%
Machinery Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.06
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 1.061 (1 + (1- 21%) (51.2%))
1.329
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
1.33
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.73% + (1.329 * 5.96%)
10.65%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:TKR using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Timken is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:TKR DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 10.65%)
2019 331.00 Analyst x2 299.14
2020 407.00 Analyst x1 332.43
2021 450.00 Analyst x1 332.17
2022 485.32 Est @ 7.85% 323.76
2023 515.95 Est @ 6.31% 311.07
2024 542.98 Est @ 5.24% 295.86
2025 567.33 Est @ 4.49% 279.38
2026 589.79 Est @ 3.96% 262.49
2027 610.97 Est @ 3.59% 245.74
2028 631.33 Est @ 3.33% 229.49
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $2,911.53
NYSE:TKR DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $631.33 × (1 + 2.73%) ÷ (10.65% – 2.73%)
$8,189.45
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= $8,189.45 ÷ (1 + 10.65%)10
$2,976.87
NYSE:TKR Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $2,911.53 + $2,976.87
$5,888.40
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $5,888.40 / 76.12
$77.36
NYSE:TKR Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $77.36
Current discount Discount to share price of $48.29
= -1 x ($48.29 - $77.36) / $77.36
37.6%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

Current Discount
Amount off the current price Timken is available for.
Intrinsic value
38%
Share price is $48.29 vs Future cash flow value of $77.36
Current Discount Checks
For Timken to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the current price. Less than 40% is even better.
  • Timken's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
  • Timken's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Timken's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Timken's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $4.10
NYSE:TKR Share Price ** NYSE (2019-06-18) in USD $48.29
United States of America Machinery Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 99 Publicly-Listed Machinery Companies 20.15x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 3,092 Publicly-Listed Companies 17.63x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Timken.

NYSE:TKR PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:TKR Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 48.29 ÷ 4.10

11.77x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Timken is good value based on earnings compared to the US Machinery industry average.
  • Timken is good value based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Timken's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 11.77x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 9 Analysts
11.8%per year
United States of America Machinery Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 80 Publicly-Listed Machinery Companies 1.44x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 2,126 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.53x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:TKR PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 11.77x ÷ 11.8%

1x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Timken is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Timken's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2019-03-31) in USD $21.53
NYSE:TKR Share Price * NYSE (2019-06-18) in USD $48.29
United States of America Machinery Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 127 Publicly-Listed Machinery Companies 2.22x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 5,244 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.79x
NYSE:TKR PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:TKR Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 48.29 ÷ 21.53

2.24x

* Primary Listing of Timken.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Timken is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Machinery industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Timken's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Machinery industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Machinery industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Timken has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

TKR Future Performance

 How is Timken expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
11.8%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Timken expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Timken's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 2.7%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Timken's earnings growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
  • Timken's revenue growth is positive but not above the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:TKR Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 9 Analysts 11.8%
NYSE:TKR Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 9 Analysts 2.1%
United States of America Machinery Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 10.2%
United States of America Machinery Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 3.2%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 13.9%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 7.4%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 9 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:TKR Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 4,210 1
2022-12-31 4,105 1
2021-12-31 4,076 581 468 4
2020-12-31 4,055 543 431 9
2019-12-31 3,917 507 394 9
NYSE:TKR Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2019-03-31 3,677 429 315
2018-12-31 3,581 333 303
2018-09-30 3,449 289 272
2018-06-30 3,339 180 254
2018-03-31 3,183 146 245
2017-12-31 3,004 237 203
2017-09-30 2,881 268 167
2017-06-30 2,767 314 147
2017-03-31 2,690 402 113
2016-12-31 2,670 404 141
2016-09-30 2,729 407 112
2016-06-30 2,779 473 142

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Timken's earnings are expected to grow by 11.8% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Timken's revenue is expected to grow by 2.1% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (2 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 9 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Timken Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:TKR Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31 6.45 6.45 6.45 1.00
2020-12-31 5.68 5.95 5.50 5.00
2019-12-31 5.13 5.25 5.04 5.00
NYSE:TKR Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2019-03-31 4.10
2018-12-31 3.93
2018-09-30 3.51
2018-06-30 3.27
2018-03-31 3.16
2017-12-31 2.62
2017-09-30 2.15
2017-06-30 1.89
2017-03-31 1.45
2016-12-31 1.79
2016-09-30 1.41
2016-06-30 1.75

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Timken is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Timken's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Timken has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

TKR Past Performance

  How has Timken performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Timken's growth in the last year to its industry (Machinery).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Timken has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
  • Timken's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (28.2% vs 24.2%)
  • Timken's earnings growth has not exceeded the US Machinery industry average in the past year (28.2% vs 28.5%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Timken's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Timken Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:TKR Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2019-03-31 3,677.40 314.50 592.50
2018-12-31 3,580.80 302.80 586.90
2018-09-30 3,448.70 272.00 578.60
2018-06-30 3,338.80 253.90 570.60
2018-03-31 3,183.10 245.40 549.70
2017-12-31 3,003.80 203.40 523.30
2017-09-30 2,880.60 167.30 514.90
2017-06-30 2,766.60 147.40 488.10
2017-03-31 2,689.60 113.10 475.20
2016-12-31 2,669.80 140.80 510.10
2016-09-30 2,729.40 112.00 450.30
2016-06-30 2,779.40 141.80 463.80
2016-03-31 2,833.80 130.30 481.90
2015-12-31 2,872.30 188.60 457.70
2015-09-30 2,920.10 6.10 507.00
2015-06-30 3,000.70 -68.10 518.50
2015-03-31 3,061.90 -48.30 529.20
2014-12-31 3,076.20 146.80 542.50
2014-09-30 3,063.50 139.20 544.80
2014-06-30 3,006.90 184.50 552.00
2014-03-31 3,009.00 183.20 554.60
2013-12-31 3,035.40 175.00 546.60
2013-09-30 3,366.20 216.50 576.10
2013-06-30 3,777.30 262.80 589.40
2013-03-31 4,329.20 390.40 613.00
2012-12-31 3,359.50 329.60 554.50
2012-09-30 5,171.40 527.70 647.50
2012-06-30 5,350.70 557.50 649.90

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Timken has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Timken used its assets more efficiently than the US Machinery industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Timken's use of capital deteriorated last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Timken's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Machinery industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Timken has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

TKR Health

 How is Timken's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Timken's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Timken is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Timken's long term commitments exceed its cash and other short term assets.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Timken's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1.1x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Timken Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

NYSE:TKR Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2019-03-31 1,705.90 1,881.90 239.50
2018-12-31 1,642.70 1,681.60 154.30
2018-09-30 1,640.40 1,730.10 153.70
2018-06-30 1,552.30 1,046.40 145.20
2018-03-31 1,542.80 1,066.30 116.40
2017-12-31 1,474.90 962.30 138.00
2017-09-30 1,455.90 1,005.90 137.20
2017-06-30 1,419.60 1,001.60 445.10
2017-03-31 1,354.80 637.30 129.50
2016-12-31 1,310.90 659.20 160.50
2016-09-30 1,366.20 663.90 129.00
2016-06-30 1,359.20 632.60 156.00
2016-03-31 1,375.60 688.70 137.30
2015-12-31 1,344.60 656.50 139.30
2015-09-30 1,351.60 724.60 155.00
2015-06-30 1,371.10 637.80 236.80
2015-03-31 1,416.20 523.40 154.40
2014-12-31 1,589.10 530.10 287.20
2014-09-30 1,643.90 531.40 238.20
2014-06-30 1,804.10 490.80 294.80
2014-03-31 2,614.40 479.30 248.30
2013-12-31 2,648.60 445.70 398.50
2013-09-30 2,367.10 476.60 418.10
2013-06-30 2,327.80 462.50 396.80
2013-03-31 2,322.90 472.50 457.90
2012-12-31 2,246.60 479.00 603.70
2012-09-30 2,345.80 488.90 485.50
2012-06-30 2,315.20 494.20 509.90
  • Timken's level of debt (104.4%) compared to net worth is high (greater than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (18.4% vs 104.4% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (24.1%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 8.7x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Timken's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Timken has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

TKR Dividends

 What is Timken's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
2.32%
Current annual income from Timken dividends. Estimated to be 2.48% next year.
If you bought $2,000 of Timken shares you are expected to receive $46 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Timken's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (1.46%).
  • Timken's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United States of America (3.72%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:TKR Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 9 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Machinery Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 77 Stocks 2.1%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 2011 Stocks 2.5%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.5%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.7%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:TKR Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31 1.25 3.00
2020-12-31 1.21 4.00
2019-12-31 1.15 4.00
NYSE:TKR Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-05-10 1.120 2.401
2019-02-06 1.120 2.477
2018-11-09 1.120 2.825
2018-08-07 1.120 2.453
2018-05-08 1.120 2.411
2018-02-09 1.080 2.382
2017-11-03 1.080 2.194
2017-08-08 1.080 2.308
2017-05-09 1.080 2.326
2017-02-10 1.040 2.314
2016-11-11 1.040 2.520
2016-08-02 1.040 3.066
2016-05-10 1.040 3.218
2016-02-12 1.040 3.183
2015-11-13 1.040 3.711
2015-08-13 1.040 3.452
2015-07-30 1.040 3.152
2015-02-13 1.000 2.549
2014-11-14 1.000 2.393
2014-08-05 1.000 2.314
2014-05-19 1.000 1.784
2014-02-14 1.000 1.658
2013-11-15 0.920 1.706
2013-08-06 0.920 1.581
2013-05-07 0.920 1.592
2013-02-08 0.920 1.683
2012-11-16 0.920 1.933
2012-08-07 0.920 2.335
2012-05-08 0.920 2.058
2012-02-10 0.920 1.759
2011-11-08 0.800 1.879
2011-08-02 0.800 2.155
2011-05-10 0.800 1.639
2011-02-09 0.720 1.421
2010-11-09 0.720 1.515
2010-08-03 0.520 1.388
2010-05-11 0.520 1.798
2010-02-09 0.360 1.238
2009-11-10 0.360 1.467
2009-08-04 0.360 1.620

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
  • Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Timken's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (3.7x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be well covered by earnings (4.9x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Timken's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Timken afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Timken has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

TKR Management

 What is the CEO of Timken's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Rich Kyle
COMPENSATION $8,720,272
AGE 52
TENURE AS CEO 5.1 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Richard G. Kyle, also known as Rich, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of The Timken Company since May 2014. Mr. Kyle served as the Chief Operating Officer of Bearings & Power Transmission at The Timken Company since November 2013 until 2014 and served as its Group President of Aerospace and Steel Segments since September 1, 2012 and President of Mobile Industries, Bearings & Power Transmission Group since March 2009. Mr. Kyle served as the President Of Mobile Industries and Aerospace at The Timken Company since 2011 until September 1, 2012. He served as President of Mobile Industries for Timken Co. since March 2009. Mr. Kyle joined Timken in 2006 as Vice President of Manufacturing for the Mobile Industries segment of the Bearings and Power Transmission Group. He has responsibility for the Mobile Industries segment and manufacturing advancement across a global network of plants. He provided leadership for an aggressive global capacity expansion for the Bearings and Power Transmission Group. He served as Vice President of Operations for the Hubbell Lighting Division of Hubbell, Inc. in Spartanburg, S.C. Mr. Kyle held division management positions within Cooper Industries, including manufacturing, supply chain and engineering. Mr. Kyle has significant experience in global manufacturing organizations and has demonstrated the ability to lead change and growth. He has been an Independent Director of Sonoco Products Company since February 19, 2015. He has been a Director of The Timken Company since 2013. He served as a Director of TimkenSteel Corporation. Mr. Kyle serves on the Board of Directors of the United Way of Greater Stark County. He received a BS in Mechanical Engineering from Purdue University and a Master's Degree in Management/MBA in management from Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management.

CEO Compensation
  • Rich's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Rich's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in United States of America.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Timken management team in years:

4.2
Average Tenure
54.5
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Timken management team is about average.
Management Team

Rich Kyle

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$9M
AGE
52
TENURE
5.1 yrs

Philip Fracassa

TITLE
Executive VP & CFO
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
50
TENURE
5.3 yrs

Ronald Myers

TITLE
Executive Vice President of Human Resources
COMPENSATION
$1M
AGE
59
TENURE
1.6 yrs

Christopher Coughlin

TITLE
Executive VP & Group President
COMPENSATION
$3M
AGE
57
TENURE
5.4 yrs

Richard Boyer

TITLE
Vice President of Operations

Shelly Chadwick

TITLE
VP of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer
TENURE
2.6 yrs

Jason Hershiser

TITLE
Manager of Investor Relations

Hansal Patel

TITLE
Vice President of Legal & Corporate Secretary
TENURE
0.1 yrs

Kari Groh

TITLE
Vice President of Communications & Public Relations
TENURE
9.5 yrs

Michael Connors

TITLE
Vice President of Global Marketing
TENURE
3.3 yrs
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Timken board of directors in years:

6.4
Average Tenure
62
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Timken board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

John Timken

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
$303K
AGE
66
TENURE
5.1 yrs

Rich Kyle

TITLE
President
COMPENSATION
$9M
AGE
52
TENURE
6.4 yrs

Sanjay Koul

TITLE
Chairman & MD of India
AGE
53

Ajita Rajendra

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$227K
AGE
66
TENURE
4.8 yrs

Maria Crowe

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$219K
AGE
58
TENURE
4.6 yrs

James Palmer

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$227K
AGE
68
TENURE
3.8 yrs

Tim Timken

TITLE
Director
COMPENSATION
$203K
AGE
50
TENURE
17.4 yrs

John Luke

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$228K
AGE
69
TENURE
20.4 yrs

Jacqueline Woods

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$218K
AGE
70
TENURE
19.4 yrs

Frank Sullivan

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$241K
AGE
57
TENURE
15.6 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • Timken insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price ($) Value ($)
07. May 19 Sell Ronald Myers Individual 06. May 19 06. May 19 -8,168 $51.07 $-416,892
07. May 19 Sell Shelly Chadwick Individual 03. May 19 03. May 19 -2,400 $51.44 $-123,456
06. Nov 18 Buy Frank Sullivan Individual 05. Nov 18 05. Nov 18 5,000 $41.05 $205,250
X
Management checks
We assess Timken's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Timken has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

TKR News

Simply Wall St News

Is There An Opportunity With The Timken Company's (NYSE:TKR) 42% Undervaluation?

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. … A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars: 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $331.00 $407.00 $450.00 $485.32 $515.95 $542.98 $567.33 $589.79 $610.97 $631.33 Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 7.85% Est @ 6.31% Est @ 5.24% Est @ 4.49% Est @ 3.96% Est @ 3.59% Est @ 3.33% Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10.64% $299.18 $332.50 $332.28 $323.91 $311.24 $296.05 $279.59 $262.72 $245.98 $229.74 Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $2.91b "Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. … Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$631m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (10.6% – 2.7%) = US$8.2b Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = $US$8.2b ÷ ( 1 + 10.6%)10 = $2.98b The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is $5.90b.

Simply Wall St -

The Timken (NYSE:TKR) Share Price Has Gained 33% And Shareholders Are Hoping For More

For example, the The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) share price return of 33% over three years lags the market return in the same period. … One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement. … During three years of share price growth, Timken achieved compound earnings per share growth of 38% per year.

Simply Wall St -

If You Like EPS Growth Then Check Out Timken (NYSE:TKR) Before It's Too Late

See our latest analysis for Timken Timken's Earnings Per Share Are Growing. … Timken's earnings per share have taken off like a rocket aimed right at the moon. … Of course, you can do well (sometimes) buying stocks that are not growing earnings and do not have insiders buying shares.

Simply Wall St -

Does The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Have A Good P/E Ratio?

Today, we'll introduce the concept of the P/E ratio for those who are learning about investing. … We'll show how you can use The Timken Company's (NYSE:TKR) P/E ratio to inform your assessment of the investment opportunity. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St -

Can The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Maintain Its Strong Returns?

This article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE). … That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, it generated $0.19 in profit. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity

Simply Wall St -

How Financially Strong Is The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR)?

The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of US$3.6b. … While investors primarily focus on the growth potential and competitive landscape of the small-cap companies, they end up ignoring a key aspect, which could be the biggest threat to its existence: its financial health. … Assessing first and foremost the financial health is.

Simply Wall St -

Is The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Potentially Undervalued?

saw a significant share price rise of over 20% in the past couple of months on the NYSE. … With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price? … Let’s examine Timken’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity

Simply Wall St -

How Does The Timken Company's (NYSE:TKR) Earnings Growth Stack Up Against Industry Performance?

In this commentary, I will examine The Timken Company's (NYSE:TKR) latest earnings update (31 December 2018) and compare these figures against its performance over the past couple of years, as well as how the rest of the machinery industry performed. … Did TKR beat its long-term earnings growth trend and its industry. … TKR's trailing twelve-month earnings (from 31 December 2018) of US$303m has.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Holding The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR)?

As an investor, I look for investments which does not compromise one fundamental factor for another. … By this I mean, I look at stocks holistically, from their financial health to their future outlook.

Simply Wall St -

Is It Too Late To Buy The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) At Its March Price?

The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) is a stock well-positioned for future growth, but many investors are wondering whether its last closing price of $41.63 is based on unrealistic expectations. … Let’s take a look at some key metrics to determine whether there's any value here for current and potential future investors. … Investors in Timken have been patiently waiting for the uptick in earnings.

Simply Wall St -

TKR Company Info

Description

The Timken Company engineers, manufactures, and markets engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Mobile Industries and Process Industries. The Mobile Industries segment offers a portfolio of bearings, seals, and lubrication devices and systems, as well as power transmission components, engineered chains, augers, belts, couplings, clutches, brakes, and related products and maintenance services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end users of off-highway equipment for the agricultural, construction, mining, outdoor power equipment, and power sports markets; and on-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks, as well as rail cars and locomotives. It also provides power transmission systems and flight-critical components for civil and military aircraft, which comprise bearings, helicopter transmission systems, rotor-head assemblies, turbine engine components, gears, and housings. This segment sells it parts through a network of authorized automotive and heavy-truck distributors to individual end users, equipment owners, operators, and maintenance shops. The Process Industries segment supplies industrial bearings and assemblies; power transmission components, such as gears and gearboxes; and linear motion products, couplings, seals, lubricants, chains, belts, and related products and services to OEMs and end-users in various industries. It also supports aftermarket sales and service needs through its network of authorized industrial distributors; and offers repair and service for bearings and gearboxes, as well as electric motor rewind, repair, and services to end users. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.

Details
Name: The Timken Company
TKR
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1899
$3,675,818,477
76,119,662
Website: http://www.timken.com
Address: The Timken Company
4500 Mount Pleasant Street NW,
North Canton,
Ohio, 44720,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE TKR Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 02. Jan 1968
DB TKH Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 02. Jan 1968
BMV TKR * Common Stock Bolsa Mexicana de Valores MX MXN 02. Jan 1968
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
18,000
Timken employees.
Industry
Industrial Machinery
Capital Goods
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/06/18 23:44
End of day share price update: 2019/06/18 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/06/10
Last earnings filing: 2019/05/01
Last earnings reported: 2019/03/31
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/31


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.