Stock Analysis

Otis Worldwide Corporation's (NYSE:OTIS) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 27% Above Its Share Price

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NYSE:OTIS
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How far off is Otis Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:OTIS) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Otis Worldwide

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$1.64b US$1.80b US$1.88b US$1.95b US$2.01b US$2.06b US$2.12b US$2.16b US$2.21b US$2.26b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x11 Analyst x4 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 3.08% Est @ 2.74% Est @ 2.5% Est @ 2.33% Est @ 2.21% Est @ 2.13%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6% US$1.5k US$1.6k US$1.5k US$1.5k US$1.5k US$1.4k US$1.4k US$1.3k US$1.2k US$1.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$14b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.3b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.6%– 1.9%) = US$49b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$49b÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)10= US$26b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$40b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$75.2, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 21% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NYSE:OTIS Discounted Cash Flow August 29th 2022

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Otis Worldwide as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.098. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Otis Worldwide, we've compiled three additional aspects you should further research:

  1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Otis Worldwide (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .
  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for OTIS's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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About NYSE:OTIS

Otis Worldwide

Otis Worldwide Corporation manufactures, installs, and services elevators and escalators in the United States, China, and internationally.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation1
Future Growth1
Past Performance3
Financial Health2
Dividends2

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Acceptable track record with imperfect balance sheet.